Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle – 10 May 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, May 10 · 15:45 Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

Fortuna Sittard 13th · 36 pts · 32 played LLDLL

First leg0–1 3–2Full time

PEC Zwolle 12th · 37 pts · 32 played WLDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fortuna Sittard were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Fortuna Sittard. Fortuna Sittard had 7.1 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 7.1 and had to travel 169 km.

Away travel169 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Fortuna Sittard43%

Draw25%

PEC Zwolle32%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.42

Fortuna Sittard40%

Draw27%

PEC Zwolle32%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.25

Fortuna Sittard43%

Draw25%

PEC Zwolle32%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.38

Fortuna Sittard35%

Draw25%

PEC Zwolle40%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.59

Fortuna Sittard43%

Draw25%

PEC Zwolle32%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.41

Over 2.5 59% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sittard)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsRichard Martens

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 16

Team strength

Fortuna Sittard

PEC Zwolle

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

19 AttackIn forecast 17

19 DefenceIn forecast 14

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fortuna Sittard

Attack—

Defense risk—

PEC Zwolle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fortuna Sittard

PEC Zwolle

1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.31

1.84 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.06

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

88% Scored inContext 84%

9% Clean sheetsContext 19%

12.44 ShotsContext 9.59

4.61 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.71

36% On target shareContext 38%

7.94 Shots in the boxContext 6.06

63% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 14%

2.04 OffsidesContext 2.08

14.41 Shots allowedContext 16.34

5.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.13

3.94 BlocksContext 4.09

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.23

69% Save rateContext 68%

45% PossessionIn forecast 45%

356 PassesContext 368

272 Accurate passesContext 288

76% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.76

12.13 FoulsContext 11.28

11.22 Fouls sufferedContext 11.78

2.06 Yellow cardsContext 1.63

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.80 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

90% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.80 ShotsContext 10.90

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

37% On target shareContext 38%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

67% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.20

14.40 Shots allowedContext 15.30

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

3.70 BlocksContext 4.30

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

61% Save rateContext 63%

43% PossessionIn forecast 46%

342 PassesContext 378

258 Accurate passesContext 297

75% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.73

9.70 FoulsContext 12.10

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fortuna Sittard

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

PEC Zwolle

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel169 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fortuna Sittard	PEC Zwolle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 3 May	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 3 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	169 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fortuna Sittard Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31M. Branderhorst(G)

42D. Bisschops 28J. Hubner 6S. van Ottele 21N. Kasanwirjo

5Y. Oukili 38T. Schenkhuizen

7K. Peterson 70L. Duijvestijn 18D. Limnios

9K. Sierhuis

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

PEC Zwolle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16T. de Graaff(G)

4A. MacNulty 5T. Velthuis 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen

8Z. Buurmeester 34N. Fichtinger

22K. de Rooij 25T. Oosting 18O. Velanas

10Koen Kostons

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fortuna Sittard Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

PEC Zwolle Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fortuna Sittard-0.4 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
PEC Zwolle+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Fortuna Sittard · Home 1.38points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 6-4-6
Scored: 1.56
Conceded: 1.69

PEC Zwolle · Away 0.56points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 1-6-9
Scored: 1.31
Conceded: 2.94

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Fortuna Sittard	PEC Zwolle
Feyenoord	L 1–2 HL 0–2 A	L 1–6 A
Heerenveen	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	L 2–4 AW 2–1 H
NAC Breda	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	W 2–1 HD 2–2 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–2 AW 4–3 H	W 3–1 HD 2–2 A
Twente	L 1–2 HL 2–3 A	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
FC Volendam	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H	L 1–2 HL 1–2 A
Telstar	L 1–4 HW 3–1 A	W 4–1 HW 2–0 A
NEC Nijmegen	W 3–2 AW 3–2 H	L 1–2 AD 2–2 H
Excelsior	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 HL 1–2 A
Ajax	L 1–4 AL 1–3 H	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A
Sparta Rotterdam	D 2–2 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Heracles	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 HL 2–8 A
Groningen	W 2–1 AL 1–2 H	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 HL 2–5 A	L 1–6 AL 0–4 H
GO Ahead Eagles	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	L 0–5 AL 0–2 H
Utrecht	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H
Points	36 of 93 · 1.16 per game	34 of 93 · 1.10 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Fortuna Sittard wins0 draws4 PEC Zwolle wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

13 Dec 2025PEC Zwolle1–0Fortuna Sittard
26 Jan 2025Fortuna Sittard1–4PEC Zwolle
9 Nov 2024PEC Zwolle3–1Fortuna Sittard
5 Nov 2023PEC Zwolle2–0Fortuna Sittard

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fortuna Sittard	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.44	1.31
Conceded per game	1.84	2.06
Match goals	3.28	3.38	3.08
Over 1.5	88%	84%
Over 2.5	69%	63%	59%
Over 3.5	38%	44%
Both teams scored	78%	69%	62%
Clean sheets	9%	19%
Failed to score	13%	16%
Games	32	32

	Fortuna Sittard	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.10
Conceded per game	2.10	2.10
Match goals	3.40	3.20	3.08
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	59%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	90%	70%	62%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fortuna Sittard	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.59	3.80
Corners conceded	6.69	5.47
Match total	11.28	9.27	10.29
Over 8.5	79% 23/29	50% 15/30
Over 9.5	62% 18/29	47% 14/30
Over 10.5	55% 16/29	33% 10/30
Cards
Cards	2.16	1.78
Opponent cards	1.38	1.53
Match total	3.54	3.31	3.31
Over 3.5	38% 12/32	41% 13/32
Over 4.5	31% 10/32	25% 8/32

	Fortuna Sittard	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.13	5.20
Corners conceded	6.50	4.10
Match total	10.63	9.30	10.29
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.10
Opponent cards	1.00	1.70
Match total	2.70	2.80	3.31
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Richard Martens Netherlands · 16 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.06league 3.13

Red cards0.13league 0.18

Cards 5+19%league 26%

Fouls20.9league 21.2

Penalties0.25league 0.21

Home wins50%league 44%

Fortuna Sittard4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

L4 Apr 26A · AZ Alkmaar0–23
L1 Feb 26A · Heracles1–23
D7 Dec 24A · Heracles2–21
L17 Feb 24H · AZ Alkmaar1–21

PEC Zwolle

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.