Frosinone
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were clear favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Como. Frosinone had 8 days of rest, Como 5.9 and had to travel 576 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel576 kmRest days8 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Frosinone17%
Draw19%
Como63%
Frosinone20%
Draw23%
Como57%
Frosinone17%
Draw19%
Como63%
Frosinone13%
Draw16%
Como71%
Frosinone18%
Draw20%
Como62%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frosinone)
Warm
29°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 13 km/h
- Humidity 49%
RefereeDaniele Chiffi
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 81
Team strength
Frosinone
Como
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
41
AttackIn forecast
72
25
DefenceIn forecast
67
57
Form indexContext
90
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FrosinoneComo
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.25
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
1.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.64
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
75%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.25
ShotsContext
22.25
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
33%
On target shareContext
32%
10.25
Shots in the boxContext
14.75
70%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
3.50
OffsidesContext
3.00
19.25
Shots allowedContext
13.25
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.75
6.25
BlocksContext
2.75
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.75
78%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
283
PassesContext
610
202
Accurate passesContext
550
72%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.07
16.50
FoulsContext
7.75
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.25
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
50%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.50
ShotsContext
17.60
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
32%
On target shareContext
33%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
12.30
60%
Box shareContext
72%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.75
15.20
Shots allowedContext
10.10
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.20
4.60
BlocksContext
2.56
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.78
83%
Save rateContext
76%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
317
PassesContext
537
239
Accurate passesContext
480
75%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.06
13.00
FoulsContext
10.10
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Frosinone
LWWD
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km943 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 57 · 7 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
Como
DWWWW
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel576 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 90 · 13 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · +4.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Frosinone |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Serie A 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 5.9Serie A 2026-2027, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 576 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 943 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.2 | 20.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Frosinone
Confirmed XI
22L. Palmisani(G)
79G. Bracaglia
30I. Monterisi
3G. Calvani
20A. Oyono
73P. Masini
14Giacomo Calò
17G. Kvernadze
10R. Schmid
7F. Ghedjemis
9A. Raimondo
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
99T. Chalobah
4Jacobo Ramón
27Yan Couto
7L. da Cunha
6Luis Milla
20M. Baturina
10N. Paz
11Assane Diao
9A. Douvikas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Frosinone
Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Frosinone+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Como+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Frosinone · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Como · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Frosinone | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | D 1–1 A | W 4–1 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Frosinone | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 3.25 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Frosinone | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.70 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 10% | |
| Games | 4 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Frosinone | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 13.25 | 11.00 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.25 | 2.00 | 3.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 4/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Frosinone | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 9.40 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.50 | 3.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Chiffi 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.57league 3.22
Red cards0.22league 0.02
Cards 5+33%league 22%
Fouls22.5league 22.1
Penalties0.20league 0.11
Home wins40%league 39%
FrosinoneNo previous matches with this referee.
Como1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D25 Oct 25A · Parma0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Frosinone4 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Como4 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
Frosinone10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Como10 games · scored 21 · conceded 6
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
