Fulham vs Crystal Palace – 5 Sep 2026

Premier League Gameweek 3 Sat, Sep 5 · 15:00 Craven Cottage, London

Fulham 16th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

2–3Full time

Crystal Palace 18th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fulham were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Crystal Palace. Fulham had 6 days of rest, Crystal Palace 7.8 and had to travel 0 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel0 kmRest days6 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Fulham46%

Draw24%

Crystal Palace30%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.29

Fulham46%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.15

Fulham46%

Draw24%

Crystal Palace30%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.30

Fulham38%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace37%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.45

Fulham45%

Draw24%

Crystal Palace30%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.30

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

22°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 10 km/h
Humidity 39%

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 88

Team strength

Fulham

Crystal Palace

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

66 AttackIn forecast 64

68 DefenceIn forecast 54

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fulham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fulham

Crystal Palace

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.00

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

2.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.81

50% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.50 ShotsContext 10.00

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50

24% On target shareContext 25%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

57% Box shareContext 70%

8% ConversionContext 5%

— OffsidesContext —

15.00 Shots allowedContext 17.00

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00

4.50 BlocksContext 4.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

60% Save rateContext 50%

61% PossessionIn forecast 43%

600 PassesContext 436

513 Accurate passesContext 371

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.58 Team ratingContext 6.66

13.50 FoulsContext 11.50

8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 8.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.55

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.54

-0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.35

50% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.80 ShotsContext 11.00

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

24% On target shareContext 36%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

62% Box shareContext 72%

6% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.71

12.60 Shots allowedContext 15.00

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

3.22 BlocksContext 4.30

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

71% Save rateContext 61%

54% PossessionIn forecast 41%

489 PassesContext 349

414 Accurate passesContext 275

85% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.79

10.90 FoulsContext 9.60

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fulham LL

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km774 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 31 · 0 pts vs 2.2 for an average club · -2.9 vs expected

L30 AugA · Sunderland0–11.3 xPts
L24 AugH · Chelsea2–31.6 xPts

Crystal Palace LL

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 36 · 0 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected

L28 AugH · Manchester City1–41.0 xPts
L22 AugA · Everton0–21.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fulham	Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Premier League 2026-2027, 30 Aug	7.8Premier League 2026-2027, 28 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	774 km	573 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fulham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Leno(G)

33A. Robinson 3C. Bassey 5J. Andersen 21T. Castagne

17A. Iwobi 19S. Charles

8César Palacios 24J. King 14O. Bobb

7Gonzalo García

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

6J. Canvot 5A. Disasi 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 20A. Wharton 23Q. Timber 25A. Khalaili

10Yeremy Pino 18Daichi Kamada

9E. Nketiah

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fulham Absences are shown before kick-off

Crystal Palace Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fulham+0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Crystal Palace-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Fulham · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.00

Crystal Palace · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Fulham wins5 draws3 Crystal Palace wins

Goals per game1.10 – 1.00 Over 2.540% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 30%

1 Jan 2026Crystal Palace1–1Fulham
7 Dec 2025Fulham1–2Crystal Palace
22 Feb 2025Fulham0–2Crystal Palace
9 Nov 2024Crystal Palace0–2Fulham
27 Apr 2024Fulham1–1Crystal Palace
23 Sep 2023Crystal Palace0–0Fulham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fulham	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.50
Conceded per game	2.00	3.00
Match goals	3.00	3.50	2.94
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	2	2

	Fulham	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	0.90
Conceded per game	1.20	2.20
Match goals	2.10	3.10	2.94
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	80%	56%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fulham	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	2.00
Corners conceded	3.50	6.00
Match total	8.50	8.00	9.24
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.50	1.00
Match total	3.50	2.00	4.00
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Fulham	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	2.78
Corners conceded	4.70	7.11
Match total	10.40	9.89	9.24
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.40
Opponent cards	1.40	1.60
Match total	3.10	3.00	4.00
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 88 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.82

Red cards0.06league 0.05

Cards 5+31%league 32%

Fouls20.2league 23.2

Penalties0.24league 0.18

Home wins38%league 45%

Fulham6 with this referee

Record2-2-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D15 Mar 26A · Nottingham Forest0–03
L7 Dec 25H · Crystal Palace1–20
D16 Aug 25A · Brighton1–13
W26 Dec 24A · Chelsea2–13
L16 Dec 23A · Newcastle0–33

Crystal Palace5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

D17 May 26A · Brentford2–23
W7 Dec 25A · Fulham2–10
D19 Apr 25H · Bournemouth0–05
L18 Aug 24A · Brentford1–25
L11 Nov 23H · Everton2–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.