Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alanyaspor. Galatasaray had 7 days of rest, Alanyaspor 7.2 and had to travel 563 km.
Away travel563 kmRest days7 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Galatasaray76%
Draw15%
Alanyaspor9%
Galatasaray75%
Draw17%
Alanyaspor9%
Galatasaray76%
Draw15%
Alanyaspor9%
Galatasaray69%
Draw18%
Alanyaspor13%
Galatasaray75%
Draw16%
Alanyaspor10%
Over 2.5 71%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Sansalan
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.63
- Matches 16
Team strength
Galatasaray
Alanyaspor
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
57
AttackIn forecast
18
55
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasarayAlanyaspor
2.39
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
0.74
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
87%
Scored inContext
74%
39%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.39
ShotsContext
12.22
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
35%
On target shareContext
31%
11.74
Shots in the boxContext
7.65
70%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.92
9.30
Shots allowedContext
10.57
3.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.91
2.75
BlocksContext
2.76
2.65
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
79%
Save rateContext
71%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
506
PassesContext
390
444
Accurate passesContext
327
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.91
FoulsContext
12.22
10.22
Fouls sufferedContext
14.43
1.74
Yellow cardsContext
2.39
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.79
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.10
ShotsContext
12.90
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
38%
On target shareContext
31%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
74%
Box shareContext
64%
17%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.60
Shots allowedContext
9.90
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.10
BlocksContext
2.44
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
70%
Save rateContext
71%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
525
PassesContext
389
461
Accurate passesContext
333
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.40
FoulsContext
12.20
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km926 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alanyaspor
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel563 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Alanyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 7.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 563 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 926 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
17E. Elmalı
6D. Sánchez
90W. Singo
93S. Boey
8Gabriel Sara
34L. Torreira
77N. Lang
53B. Yılmaz
10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
48Paulo Victor(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
11Ruan
17N. Janvier
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
16U. Hwang
12M. Elia
9S. Mounié
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alanyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alanyaspor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
2.50points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-3-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 0.83
Alanyaspor · Away
1.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-8-2
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 5–1 HW 2–0 A | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Rizespor | W 3–0 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 HW 4–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Samsunspor | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Trabzonspor | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Goztepe | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Points | 52 of 66 · 2.36 per game | 26 of 66 · 1.18 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
5 Galatasaray wins0 draws0 Alanyaspor wins
Goals per game2.40 – 0.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets80% · 0%
- 26 Sep 2025Alanyaspor0–1Galatasaray
- 9 Mar 2025Alanyaspor1–2Galatasaray
- 6 Oct 2024Galatasaray1–0Alanyaspor
- 15 Apr 2024Alanyaspor0–4Galatasaray
- 25 Nov 2023Galatasaray4–0Alanyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.39 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.74 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 2.26 | 3.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 43% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 61% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 39% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 26% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Galatasaray | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.50 | 3.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.32 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.41 | 3.55 | |
| Match total | 8.73 | 8.30 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 10/22 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 10/22 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 6/22 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.04 | |
| Match total | 4.13 | 4.47 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 10/23 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Galatasaray | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 7.90 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.80 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Sansalan Türkiye · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.81league 4.45
Red cards0.25league 0.22
Cards 5+56%league 46%
Fouls24.9league 26.0
Penalties0.63league 0.26
Home wins56%league 38%
Galatasaray2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W8 Aug 25A · Gazişehir Gaziantep3–03
- W18 May 25H · Kayserispor3–04
Alanyaspor2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D8 Nov 25A · Trabzonspor1–13
- L27 Apr 25A · Trabzonspor3–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray23 games · scored 55 · conceded 17
9
2
0-15
9
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
8
2
46-60
12
5
61-75
12
5
76-90
Alanyaspor23 games · scored 25 · conceded 27
5
5
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
4
61-75
7
8
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
4
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
2
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
4
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
