Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Antalyaspor. Galatasaray had 7 days of rest, Antalyaspor 6 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Galatasaray80%
Draw13%
Antalyaspor7%
Galatasaray82%
Draw13%
Antalyaspor5%
Galatasaray81%
Draw13%
Antalyaspor6%
Galatasaray74%
Draw16%
Antalyaspor10%
Galatasaray79%
Draw14%
Antalyaspor7%
Over 2.5 71%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCagdas Altay
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 15
Team strength
Galatasaray
Antalyaspor
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
57
AttackIn forecast
11
55
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasarayAntalyaspor
2.28
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.94
0.84
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.59
1.90
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
91%
Scored inContext
59%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
15.63
ShotsContext
9.06
5.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.45
34%
On target shareContext
37%
11.26
Shots in the boxContext
6.03
70%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.26
OffsidesContext
2.17
10.00
Shots allowedContext
13.31
3.58
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.03
2.71
BlocksContext
3.07
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.48
77%
Save rateContext
69%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
489
PassesContext
332
426
Accurate passesContext
261
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.41
FoulsContext
12.03
10.47
Fouls sufferedContext
14.42
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
90%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.90
ShotsContext
11.10
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
31%
On target shareContext
32%
9.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
68%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
3.50
OffsidesContext
2.33
14.20
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.11
3.11
BlocksContext
2.38
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
75%
Save rateContext
76%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
414
PassesContext
336
340
Accurate passesContext
264
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.71
12.50
FoulsContext
12.70
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antalyaspor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel481 km710 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Antalyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 2 May | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,238 km | 710 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
20İ. Gündoğan
34L. Torreira
53B. Yılmaz
11Y. Akgün
10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
21A. Yiğiter(G)
3K. Paal
4H. Türkmen
30L. Giannetti
7B. Balcı
23Jesper Ceesay
88D. Šarić
70D. Sinik
6S. Dikmen
10A. Ömür
11S. Ballet
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Antalyaspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Antalyaspor+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
2.50points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-4-0
- Scored
- 2.63
- Conceded
- 0.75
Antalyaspor · Away
0.81points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-9
- Scored
- 0.56
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | L 1–4 AW 3–2 H | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 AW 3–2 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Goztepe | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 AL 0–4 H |
| Besiktas | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | L 2–4 AL 1–3 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Konyaspor | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 5–1 HW 2–0 A | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Rizespor | W 3–0 AW 3–1 H | L 0–1 AL 2–5 H |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 HW 4–0 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A | L 1–4 HL 2–3 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 71 of 93 · 2.29 per game | 29 of 93 · 0.94 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
5 Galatasaray wins0 draws0 Antalyaspor wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.40
Over 2.580%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 0%
- 13 Dec 2025Antalyaspor1–4Galatasaray
- 14 Mar 2025Galatasaray4–0Antalyaspor
- 19 Oct 2024Antalyaspor0–3Galatasaray
- 26 Feb 2024Galatasaray2–1Antalyaspor
- 7 Oct 2023Antalyaspor0–2Galatasaray
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.28 | 0.94 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.84 | 1.59 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 2.53 | 3.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 66% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 50% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 41% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Galatasaray | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.40 | 3.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.43 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 8.83 | 9.76 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 15/30 | 63% 20/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 14/30 | 63% 20/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 9/30 | 47% 15/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 2.63 | |
| Match total | 4.38 | 4.94 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 16/32 | 66% 21/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 13/32 | 50% 16/32 | |
| Galatasaray | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 10.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.40 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cagdas Altay Türkiye · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.27league 4.43
Red cards0.20league 0.22
Cards 5+13%league 45%
Fouls24.4league 26.0
Penalties0.13league 0.28
Home wins40%league 41%
Galatasaray3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Feb 26H · Eyüpspor5–10
- L9 Nov 25A · Kocaelispor0–11
- W27 Apr 25A · Eyüpspor5–12
AntalyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray32 games · scored 73 · conceded 27
12
3
0-15
11
3
16-30
9
1
31-45
11
5
46-60
15
9
61-75
15
6
76-90
Antalyaspor32 games · scored 30 · conceded 51
3
12
0-15
5
5
16-30
5
7
31-45
5
10
46-60
5
4
61-75
7
13
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
5
61-75
2
1
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
