Galatasaray vs Besiktas – 4 Oct 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 4 · 18:00 Rams Global Stadium, İstanbul

Galatasaray 1st · 21 pts · 7 played WWWWW

1–1Full time

Besiktas 5th · 12 pts · 6 played LWLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Galatasaray were clear favourites.

Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 36). Galatasaray had 8 days of rest, Besiktas 5 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days8 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2

Galatasaray70%

Draw18%

Besiktas12%

Expected goals 2.34 – 0.86

Galatasaray68%

Draw19%

Besiktas12%

Expected goals 2.20 – 0.81

Galatasaray70%

Draw18%

Besiktas12%

Expected goals 2.32 – 0.86

Galatasaray63%

Draw21%

Besiktas16%

Expected goals 2.09 – 0.96

Galatasaray69%

Draw19%

Besiktas12%

Expected goals 2.21 – 0.81

Over 2.5 62% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

RefereeYasin Kol

Cards per match 5.8
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 22

Team strength

Galatasaray

Besiktas

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 36

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

57 AttackIn forecast 60

55 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Galatasaray

Attack—

Defense risk—

Besiktas

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Galatasaray

Besiktas

2.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83

0.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

2.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.99

0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

+0.37 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

100% Scored inContext 67%

71% Clean sheetsContext 17%

16.14 ShotsContext 15.00

6.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.67

40% On target shareContext 38%

10.86 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

66% Box shareContext 78%

17% ConversionContext 12%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.67

10.00 Shots allowedContext 9.00

3.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.17

2.50 BlocksContext 2.20

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20

92% Save rateContext 61%

62% PossessionIn forecast 55%

516 PassesContext 424

454 Accurate passesContext 352

88% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.18 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.43 FoulsContext 14.50

9.86 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.17

This league season, per match · 7 and 6 games

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

2.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.99

1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

100% Scored inContext 70%

70% Clean sheetsContext 10%

15.50 ShotsContext 14.30

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

41% On target shareContext 38%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.60

64% Box shareContext 74%

15% ConversionContext 13%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.67

10.60 Shots allowedContext 10.20

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

3.11 BlocksContext 3.43

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

89% Save rateContext 69%

59% PossessionIn forecast 59%

488 PassesContext 499

421 Accurate passesContext 424

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.09 Team ratingContext 6.97

12.70 FoulsContext 13.40

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Galatasaray

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km962 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Besiktas

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,225 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Galatasaray	Besiktas
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 26 Sep	5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 29 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	962 km	1,225 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	14	13.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Galatasaray Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1U. Çakır(G)

4I. Jakobs 42A. Bardakcı 6D. Sánchez 90W. Singo

99M. Lemina 34L. Torreira

53B. Yılmaz 20İ. Gündoğan 11Y. Akgün

45V. Osimhen

Besiktas Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1F. Günok(G)

39D. Jurásek 53E. Topçu 35Tiago Djaló 25G. Sazdağı

10O. Kökçü 4O. Ndidi

19E. Touré 27Rafa 18V. Černý

9T. Abraham

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Galatasaray Absences are shown before kick-off

Besiktas Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Galatasaray+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Besiktas-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Galatasaray · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.67

Besiktas · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Galatasaray	Besiktas
Alanyaspor	W 1–0 A	L 0–2 A
Eyüpspor	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 H
Kayserispor	W 4–0 A	W 4–0 A
Points	9 of 9 · 3.00 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Galatasaray wins0 draws1 Besiktas wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

29 Mar 2025Besiktas2–1Galatasaray
28 Oct 2024Galatasaray2–1Besiktas
3 Mar 2024Besiktas0–1Galatasaray
21 Oct 2023Galatasaray2–1Besiktas

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Galatasaray	Besiktas	Forecast
Scored per game	2.71	1.83
Conceded per game	0.29	1.33
Match goals	3.00	3.17	3.20
Over 1.5	86%	100%
Over 2.5	71%	83%	62%
Over 3.5	43%	33%
Both teams scored	29%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	71%	17%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	7	6

	Galatasaray	Besiktas	Forecast
Scored per game	2.71	1.83
Conceded per game	0.29	1.33
Match goals	3.00	3.17	3.20
Over 1.5	86%	100%
Over 2.5	71%	83%	62%
Over 3.5	43%	33%
Both teams scored	29%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	71%	17%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	7	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Galatasaray	Besiktas	League
Corners
Corners won	4.83	6.33
Corners conceded	3.83	4.17
Match total	8.66	10.50	9.48
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	1.29	2.17
Opponent cards	2.00	2.83
Match total	3.29	5.00	4.88
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	83% 5/6
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	50% 3/6

	Galatasaray	Besiktas	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	4.80
Corners conceded	4.11	4.20
Match total	8.33	9.00	9.48
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.30
Opponent cards	1.90	2.10
Match total	3.50	4.40	4.88
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Yasin Kol 22 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.27league 4.63

Red cards0.50league 0.29

Cards 5+64%league 52%

Fouls26.9league 26.8

Penalties0.36league 0.28

Home wins32%league 38%

Galatasaray3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.4.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

W22 Sep 25H · Konyaspor3–11
L29 Mar 25A · Besiktas1–24
W9 Mar 25A · Alanyaspor2–18

Besiktas2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.5 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W4 May 25A · Fenerbahce1–03
W29 Mar 25H · Galatasaray2–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.