Galatasaray vs Fatih Karagümrük – 15 Aug 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 2 Fri, Aug 15 · 19:30 Rams Global Stadium, İstanbul

Galatasaray 2nd · 3 pts · 1 played W

3–0Full time

Fatih Karagümrük

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Galatasaray were clear favourites.

Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 19). Galatasaray had 7 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük ? and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days7 · ?Matches / 14d1 · 0

Galatasaray78%

Draw15%

Fatih Karagümrük7%

Expected goals 2.65 – 0.71

Galatasaray78%

Draw15%

Fatih Karagümrük7%

Expected goals 2.58 – 0.69

Galatasaray79%

Draw14%

Fatih Karagümrük7%

Expected goals 2.70 – 0.71

Galatasaray72%

Draw18%

Fatih Karagümrük10%

Expected goals 2.36 – 0.80

Galatasaray77%

Draw15%

Fatih Karagümrük8%

Expected goals 2.53 – 0.69

Over 2.5 65% Both score 48% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 5

Team strength

Galatasaray

Fatih Karagümrük

72 L90 StrengthIn forecast 19

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 15

57 AttackIn forecast 13

55 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Galatasaray

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fatih Karagümrük

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Galatasaray

Fatih Karagümrük

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

0.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

2.12 xGVia Att/Def —

0.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.48 Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 90%

70% Clean sheetsContext 0%

18.60 ShotsContext 13.80

6.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

36% On target shareContext 38%

13.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

68% Box shareContext 59%

14% ConversionContext 12%

2.89 OffsidesContext 2.43

8.60 Shots allowedContext 15.40

3.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

2.89 BlocksContext 3.40

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

88% Save rateContext 64%

61% PossessionIn forecast 46%

473 PassesContext 380

410 Accurate passesContext 303

87% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.34 Team ratingContext 6.88

12.70 FoulsContext 11.60

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.30

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Galatasaray

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,700 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fatih Karagümrük

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Galatasaray	Fatih Karagümrük
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Aug	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,700 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Galatasaray Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

19G. Güvenç(G)

17E. Elmalı 42A. Bardakcı 6D. Sánchez 7R. Sallai

99M. Lemina 34L. Torreira

10L. Sané 8Gabriel Sara 11Y. Akgün

53B. Yılmaz

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Fatih Karagümrük Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13I. Grbić(G)

33Ç. Kurukalıp 29J. Balkovec 22Fatih Kurucuk 6A. Çankaya

8B. Özcan 14Marius Tresor Doh 11D. Johnson

17Ahmet Sivri 21T. Çukur 70Serginho

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Galatasaray Scores -0.05 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fatih Karagümrük Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Galatasaray-0.7 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Fatih Karagümrük+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Galatasaray · Home No home games yet this season.

Fatih Karagümrük · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Galatasaray wins0 draws0 Fatih Karagümrük wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

12 May 2024Fatih Karagümrük2–3Galatasaray
20 Dec 2023Galatasaray1–0Fatih Karagümrük

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Galatasaray	Fatih Karagümrük	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	—
Conceded per game	0.00	—
Match goals	3.00	—	3.36
Over 1.5	100%	—
Over 2.5	100%	—	65%
Over 3.5	0%	—
Both teams scored	0%	—	48%
Clean sheets	100%	—
Failed to score	0%	—
Games	1	0

	Galatasaray	Fatih Karagümrük	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	—
Conceded per game	0.00	—
Match goals	3.00	—	3.36
Over 1.5	100%	—
Over 2.5	100%	—	65%
Over 3.5	0%	—
Both teams scored	0%	—	48%
Clean sheets	100%	—
Failed to score	0%	—
Games	1	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Galatasaray	Fatih Karagümrük	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	—
Corners conceded	1.00	—
Match total	4.00	—	7.67
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	—
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	—
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	—
Cards
Cards	3.00	—
Opponent cards	3.00	—
Match total	6.00	—	3.50
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	—
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	—

	Galatasaray	Fatih Karagümrük	League
Corners
Corners won	6.38	5.10
Corners conceded	3.50	5.50
Match total	9.88	10.60	7.67
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.80
Opponent cards	1.90	1.50
Match total	4.20	4.30	3.50
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.20league 3.33

Red cards0.00league 0.17

Cards 5+20%league 33%

Fouls21.4league 25.5

Penalties0.00league 0.67

Home wins60%league 50%

Galatasaray1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W3 May 25H · Sivasspor4–11

Fatih Karagümrük

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.