Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were slight favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 64). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fenerbahce. Galatasaray had 8 days of rest, Fenerbahce 9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days8 · 9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Galatasaray44%
Draw25%
Fenerbahce32%
Galatasaray49%
Draw26%
Fenerbahce25%
Galatasaray43%
Draw24%
Fenerbahce32%
Galatasaray36%
Draw25%
Fenerbahce39%
Galatasaray43%
Draw25%
Fenerbahce32%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeYasin Kol
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 37
Team strength
Galatasaray
Fenerbahce
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
57
AttackIn forecast
75
55
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasarayFenerbahce
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.27
0.77
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
90%
Scored inContext
90%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
15.53
ShotsContext
16.57
5.37
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.97
35%
On target shareContext
36%
11.21
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
70%
Box shareContext
58%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
2.24
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.07
Shots allowedContext
9.70
3.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.17
2.78
BlocksContext
3.63
2.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
79%
Save rateContext
77%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
497
PassesContext
475
434
Accurate passesContext
409
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.05
Team ratingContext
7.01
12.27
FoulsContext
11.60
10.23
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.23
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.30
ShotsContext
14.20
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
35%
On target shareContext
35%
8.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
68%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
3.83
OffsidesContext
1.75
16.10
Shots allowedContext
10.80
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.40
BlocksContext
3.67
4.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
77%
Save rateContext
69%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
451
PassesContext
497
375
Accurate passesContext
426
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.60
FoulsContext
9.90
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fenerbahce
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Fenerbahce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 704 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
99M. Lemina
34L. Torreira
53B. Yılmaz
11Y. Akgün
10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
3A. Brown
24J. Oosterwolde
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi
17N. Kanté
9M. Aktürkoğlu
94Talisca
45D. Nene
26S. Chérif
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fenerbahce
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fenerbahce-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
2.47points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-4-0
- Scored
- 2.60
- Conceded
- 0.80
Fenerbahce · Away
2.13points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-5-1
- Scored
- 2.27
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 AW 3–2 H | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Goztepe | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Besiktas | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A | W 3–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Konyaspor | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 5–1 HW 2–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Rizespor | W 3–0 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 HW 5–2 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 HW 4–0 A | W 4–0 AW 4–2 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A | W 4–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–1 A | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Samsunspor | W 3–2 H | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 70 of 87 · 2.41 per game | 66 of 87 · 2.28 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Galatasaray wins3 draws1 Fenerbahce wins
Goals per game0.80 – 0.60
Over 2.520%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 60%
- 1 Dec 2025Fenerbahce1–1Galatasaray
- 24 Feb 2025Galatasaray0–0Fenerbahce
- 21 Sep 2024Fenerbahce1–3Galatasaray
- 19 May 2024Galatasaray0–1Fenerbahce
- 24 Dec 2023Fenerbahce0–0Galatasaray
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 2.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.77 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 3.27 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 60% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 63% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Galatasaray | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.36 | 6.74 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.43 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 8.79 | 11.30 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 13/28 | 78% 21/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 13/28 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 9/28 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.23 | 3.23 | |
| Match total | 4.16 | 5.50 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 14/30 | 77% 23/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 12/30 | 60% 18/30 | |
| Galatasaray | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 7.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.44 | 12.30 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.90 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yasin Kol 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.22league 4.44
Red cards0.43league 0.22
Cards 5+62%league 45%
Fouls26.4league 26.1
Penalties0.32league 0.28
Home wins35%league 41%
Galatasaray5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.3.8 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds3
- D1 Dec 25A · Fenerbahce1–14
- D4 Oct 25H · Besiktas1–12
- W22 Sep 25H · Konyaspor3–11
- L29 Mar 25A · Besiktas1–24
- W9 Mar 25A · Alanyaspor2–18
Fenerbahce6 with this referee
Record2-3-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 4.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W5 Apr 26H · Besiktas1–02
- D23 Feb 26H · Kasimpasa1–13
- D1 Dec 25H · Galatasaray1–13
- D16 Aug 25A · Goztepe0–04
- L4 May 25H · Besiktas0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray30 games · scored 69 · conceded 23
11
3
0-15
11
2
16-30
8
1
31-45
11
4
46-60
14
8
61-75
14
5
76-90
Fenerbahce30 games · scored 68 · conceded 30
7
7
0-15
8
7
16-30
15
3
31-45
8
6
46-60
11
3
61-75
19
4
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
4
1
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
8
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
