Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Galatasaray
1st · 29 pts · 12 played
DWWDL
3–2Full time
Genclerbirligi
14th · 11 pts · 12 played
DWLLW
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 12). Galatasaray usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Galatasaray had 13.1 days of rest, Genclerbirligi 15 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days13.1 · 15Matches / 14d1 · 0
Galatasaray85%
Draw11%
Genclerbirligi4%
Galatasaray85%
Draw11%
Genclerbirligi4%
Galatasaray85%
Draw10%
Genclerbirligi4%
Galatasaray80%
Draw14%
Genclerbirligi6%
Galatasaray84%
Draw11%
Genclerbirligi5%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.09
- Matches 11
Team strength
GalatasarayGenclerbirligi
74
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
57
AttackIn forecast
13
55
DefenceIn forecast
16
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasarayGenclerbirligi
2.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
2.08
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
83%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
16.58
ShotsContext
10.00
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
36%
On target shareContext
33%
10.83
Shots in the boxContext
5.42
65%
Box shareContext
55%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.10
9.00
Shots allowedContext
15.17
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.92
2.30
BlocksContext
4.89
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.58
87%
Save rateContext
66%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
482
PassesContext
295
419
Accurate passesContext
229
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.69
11.50
FoulsContext
12.50
9.92
Fouls sufferedContext
13.42
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.00
ShotsContext
10.10
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
39%
On target shareContext
36%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
60%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.13
10.20
Shots allowedContext
16.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.13
BlocksContext
4.89
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
88%
Save rateContext
68%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
423
PassesContext
289
360
Accurate passesContext
222
85%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.80
FoulsContext
13.50
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genclerbirligi
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Genclerbirligi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 15Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 394 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
19G. Güvenç(G)
88K. Karataş
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
90W. Singo
34L. Torreira
99M. Lemina
7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara
10L. Sané
53B. Yılmaz
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
23M. Hanousek
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
2T. da Silva
35O. Ülgün
15A. Dele-Bashiru
70F. Tongya
22S. Koïta
11G. Gürpüz
29M. Niang
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genclerbirligi
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Genclerbirligi+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
2.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-0
- Scored
- 2.17
- Conceded
- 0.67
Genclerbirligi · Away
0.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-4
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| Goztepe | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Rizespor | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 25 of 27 · 2.78 per game | 11 of 27 · 1.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.08 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 2.42 | 3.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 58% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 67% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 25% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Galatasaray | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 3.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.27 | 4.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.64 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.91 | 9.64 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 5/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 4/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.58 | 2.58 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 3.91 | 4.75 | 4.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 5/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 4/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Galatasaray | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.00 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 5.40 | 4.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.36league 4.55
Red cards0.27league 0.25
Cards 5+36%league 49%
Fouls23.4league 26.2
Penalties0.09league 0.26
Home wins55%league 38%
Galatasaray2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W15 Aug 25H · Fatih Karagümrük3–00
- W3 May 25H · Sivasspor4–11
GenclerbirligiNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray12 games · scored 25 · conceded 6
2
2
0-15
5
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
7
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Genclerbirligi12 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 17 · conceded 6
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
61-75
1
2
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
