Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 28). Galatasaray usually keep the ball (55% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Galatasaray had 7.9 days of rest, Goztepe 7 and had to travel 328 km.
Away travel328 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Galatasaray74%
Draw17%
Goztepe9%
Galatasaray73%
Draw17%
Goztepe10%
Galatasaray74%
Draw17%
Goztepe9%
Galatasaray67%
Draw20%
Goztepe13%
Galatasaray73%
Draw17%
Goztepe10%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 8
Team strength
Galatasaray
Goztepe
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
57
AttackIn forecast
39
55
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasarayGoztepe
2.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
0.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
2.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
100%
Scored inContext
67%
56%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
15.89
ShotsContext
13.67
5.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
36%
On target shareContext
35%
10.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
66%
Box shareContext
59%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.78
9.44
Shots allowedContext
10.33
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
2.50
BlocksContext
3.63
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
90%
Save rateContext
91%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
489
PassesContext
251
428
Accurate passesContext
177
87%
Pass accuracyContext
71%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.22
FoulsContext
17.00
9.78
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
2.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
100%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
14.70
ShotsContext
13.70
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
41%
On target shareContext
35%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
65%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.70
11.00
Shots allowedContext
11.10
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.60
3.33
BlocksContext
3.67
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
84%
Save rateContext
85%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
451
PassesContext
250
385
Accurate passesContext
176
85%
Pass accuracyContext
71%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.90
FoulsContext
17.20
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Goztepe
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel328 km710 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 328 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 710 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara
99M. Lemina
53B. Yılmaz
11Y. Akgün
10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
23F. Bayır
15A. Cherni
30A. Dennis
6Rhaldney
2A. Kurtulan
11Efkan Bekiroğlu
9Juan
39Janderson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Goztepe+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
Goztepe · Away
1.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 0.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Rizespor | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 22 of 24 · 2.75 per game | 15 of 24 · 1.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Galatasaray wins0 draws0 Goztepe wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 24 May 2025Goztepe0–2Galatasaray
- 4 Jan 2025Galatasaray2–1Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.44 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.44 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 1.56 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 22% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 22% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 56% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Galatasaray | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.44 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.44 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 1.56 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 22% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 22% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 56% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 8.76 | 9.67 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 2.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.44 | 2.56 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 5.12 | 5.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Galatasaray | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 9.60 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.80 | 5.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 4.78
Red cards0.25league 0.27
Cards 5+38%league 56%
Fouls23.1league 26.6
Penalties0.50league 0.28
Home wins50%league 38%
GalatasarayNo previous matches with this referee.
Goztepe1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L18 May 25A · Rizespor3–61
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray9 games · scored 22 · conceded 4
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Goztepe9 games · scored 11 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 13 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
