Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 28). Galatasaray usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Galatasaray had 8 days of rest, Goztepe 6 and had to travel 328 km.
Away travel328 kmRest days8 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Galatasaray73%
Draw16%
Goztepe11%
Galatasaray68%
Draw19%
Goztepe13%
Galatasaray73%
Draw16%
Goztepe11%
Galatasaray66%
Draw19%
Goztepe15%
Galatasaray72%
Draw16%
Goztepe12%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 24
Team strength
Galatasaray
Goztepe
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
57
AttackIn forecast
39
55
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasarayGoztepe
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
0.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.18
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
24.00
ShotsContext
18.00
8.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
35%
On target shareContext
36%
15.50
Shots in the boxContext
13.50
74%
Box shareContext
76%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
3.50
OffsidesContext
1.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
15.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
3.50
BlocksContext
8.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
71%
Save rateContext
50%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
530
PassesContext
294
475
Accurate passesContext
200
90%
Pass accuracyContext
68%
7.20
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.50
FoulsContext
14.00
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.88
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.30
ShotsContext
15.70
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
34%
On target shareContext
33%
11.33
Shots in the boxContext
11.80
68%
Box shareContext
75%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
3.14
OffsidesContext
2.11
9.80
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
2.25
BlocksContext
3.70
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
63%
Save rateContext
67%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
492
PassesContext
242
427
Accurate passesContext
167
87%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.60
FoulsContext
17.20
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
DW
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,098 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 54 · 4 pts vs 3.6 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 21 Aug | 6Süper Lig 2026-2027, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 328 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,098 km | 1,694 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
24J. Yılmaz(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
99M. Lemina
34L. Torreira
53B. Yılmaz
8Gabriel Sara
11Y. Akgün
45V. Osimhen
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
25L. Gugeshashvili(G)
26M. Bokele
13E. Yildirim
4T. Altıkardeş
12R. Akonnor
5Rhaldney
20N. Miroshi
2A. Kurtulan
10Efkan Bekiroğlu
39Janderson
7André Henrique
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Goztepe+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Goztepe · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 Galatasaray wins0 draws0 Goztepe wins
Goals per game2.50 – 0.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 8 Apr 2026Goztepe1–3Galatasaray
- 26 Oct 2025Galatasaray3–1Goztepe
- 24 May 2025Goztepe0–2Galatasaray
- 4 Jan 2025Galatasaray2–1Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Galatasaray | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.10 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 11.50 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 1.50 | 4.00 | 3.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Galatasaray | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.30 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 7.80 | 8.76 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 5.80 | 3.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 3.05
Red cards0.08league 0.20
Cards 5+21%league 35%
Fouls24.7league 25.7
Penalties0.21league 0.35
Home wins50%league 40%
Galatasaray2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W5 Dec 25H · Samsunspor3–21
- W18 Apr 25H · BB Bodrumspor2–01
Goztepe2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W19 Sep 25H · Besiktas3–02
- W10 Aug 25A · Rizespor3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray2 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Goztepe2 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 21 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
6
61-75
5
1
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
