Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 19). Galatasaray usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Galatasaray had 8 days of rest, Kasimpasa 9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days8 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Galatasaray79%
Draw14%
Kasimpasa7%
Galatasaray78%
Draw15%
Kasimpasa7%
Galatasaray79%
Draw14%
Kasimpasa7%
Galatasaray73%
Draw17%
Kasimpasa10%
Galatasaray78%
Draw15%
Kasimpasa7%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeAlper Akarsu
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 22
Team strength
Galatasaray
Kasimpasa
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
57
AttackIn forecast
21
55
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasarayKasimpasa
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
2.01
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
88%
Scored inContext
63%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
16.13
ShotsContext
10.69
5.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.07
36%
On target shareContext
25%
10.81
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
65%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.92
9.81
Shots allowedContext
11.31
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.06
2.71
BlocksContext
3.00
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
77%
Save rateContext
72%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
487
PassesContext
326
424
Accurate passesContext
254
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.94
FoulsContext
14.56
9.69
Fouls sufferedContext
12.44
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
0.68
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.60
ShotsContext
9.40
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
35%
On target shareContext
31%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
63%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.00
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.13
BlocksContext
2.89
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
69%
Save rateContext
73%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
486
PassesContext
326
421
Accurate passesContext
253
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.70
FoulsContext
13.40
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kasimpasa
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Kasimpasa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 12 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 27 | 27.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
19G. Güvenç(G)
88K. Karataş
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
20İ. Gündoğan
34L. Torreira
53B. Yılmaz
11Y. Akgün
10L. Sané
9M. Icardi
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
41A. Szalai
20N. Opoku
2C. Winck Neto
14J. Espinoza
34F. Diabaté
6Cem Üstündag
5Atakan Mujde
7M. Fall
77P. Guèye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kasimpasa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Kasimpasa+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
2.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-0
- Scored
- 2.38
- Conceded
- 1.00
Kasimpasa · Away
1.38points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor | W 4–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Samsunspor | W 3–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Goztepe | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 2–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Rizespor | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 3–0 A | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 39 of 48 · 2.44 per game | 15 of 48 · 0.94 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Galatasaray wins2 draws0 Kasimpasa wins
Goals per game3.00 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 2 Mar 2025Kasimpasa3–3Galatasaray
- 28 Sep 2024Galatasaray3–3Kasimpasa
- 17 Mar 2024Kasimpasa3–4Galatasaray
- 3 Nov 2023Galatasaray2–1Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.19 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 38% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 38% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Galatasaray | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.30 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.93 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.73 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 9.79 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 6/15 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 6/15 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 4/15 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.31 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.19 | 4.50 | 4.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 7/16 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 6/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Galatasaray | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 7.80 | 10.25 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.90 | 4.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alper Akarsu 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.64league 4.45
Red cards0.14league 0.25
Cards 5+50%league 47%
Fouls23.2league 25.8
Penalties0.41league 0.26
Home wins45%league 35%
Galatasaray2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W24 Aug 25A · Kayserispor4–02
- W4 Jan 25H · Goztepe2–11
Kasimpasa3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D5 Oct 25H · Konyaspor1–12
- L9 Aug 25A · Antalyaspor1–23
- D23 Dec 24A · Istanbul Basaksehir2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray16 games · scored 36 · conceded 12
5
2
0-15
7
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
8
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
Kasimpasa16 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
5
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
