Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kasimpasa. Galatasaray had 20 days of rest, Kasimpasa 21 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days20 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Galatasaray71%
Draw17%
Kasimpasa12%
Galatasaray72%
Draw17%
Kasimpasa11%
Galatasaray71%
Draw17%
Kasimpasa12%
Galatasaray64%
Draw20%
Kasimpasa16%
Galatasaray70%
Draw18%
Kasimpasa12%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 43
Team strength
Galatasaray
Kasimpasa
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
57
AttackIn forecast
21
55
DefenceIn forecast
32
64
Form indexContext
51
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasarayKasimpasa
2.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
2.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
83%
Scored inContext
83%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
22.67
ShotsContext
11.00
7.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.17
33%
On target shareContext
29%
15.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.83
68%
Box shareContext
53%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.80
OffsidesContext
1.75
9.83
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
4.00
BlocksContext
3.67
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
71%
Save rateContext
77%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
475
PassesContext
346
412
Accurate passesContext
272
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.00
FoulsContext
14.67
11.17
Fouls sufferedContext
12.17
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.04
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
19.30
ShotsContext
9.80
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
33%
On target shareContext
32%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.20
68%
Box shareContext
55%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.83
9.10
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.43
BlocksContext
3.00
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
60%
Save rateContext
71%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
492
PassesContext
325
430
Accurate passesContext
255
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.00
FoulsContext
14.20
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
WWLWL
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 9 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
Kasimpasa
WDDWD
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 51 · 9 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · +2.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Kasimpasa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20Süper Lig 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 21Süper Lig 2026-2027, 18 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 8.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
53B. Yılmaz
8Gabriel Sara
34L. Torreira
27Rafael Leão
83A. Batrakov
11Y. Akgün
21D. Gül
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
45A. Karapo
27M. Ilie
14Kevin Mouanga
2C. Winck Neto
26K. Demirbay
16A. Baldursson
7A. Kol
51Elson Mendes
50G. Yalçın
9A. Benedyczak
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kasimpasa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Kasimpasa+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Kasimpasa · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 3–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Çorum FK | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 5 of 9 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Galatasaray wins2 draws1 Kasimpasa wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.83
Over 2.583%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 17 May 2026Kasimpasa1–0Galatasaray
- 21 Dec 2025Galatasaray3–0Kasimpasa
- 2 Mar 2025Kasimpasa3–3Galatasaray
- 28 Sep 2024Galatasaray3–3Kasimpasa
- 17 Mar 2024Kasimpasa3–4Galatasaray
- 3 Nov 2023Galatasaray2–1Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.17 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.83 | 2.00 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 33% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 83% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Galatasaray | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 2.40 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 7.20 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 11.60 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.83 | 4.67 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Galatasaray | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.20 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 10.22 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.90 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.40league 4.00
Red cards0.23league 0.17
Cards 5+44%league 43%
Fouls23.9league 25.3
Penalties0.30league 0.35
Home wins35%league 48%
GalatasarayNo previous matches with this referee.
Kasimpasa3 with this referee
Record0-3-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D30 Aug 26A · Istanbul Basaksehir1–11
- D18 Jan 26H · Antalyaspor0–03
- D5 May 25H · Trabzonspor1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray6 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Kasimpasa6 games · scored 7 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
3
1
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 19 · conceded 20
3
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
6
61-75
5
3
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
