Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kayserispor. Galatasaray had 8 days of rest, Kayserispor 8.2 and had to travel 613 km.
Away travel613 kmRest days8 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Galatasaray80%
Draw14%
Kayserispor6%
Galatasaray81%
Draw13%
Kayserispor6%
Galatasaray81%
Draw13%
Kayserispor6%
Galatasaray74%
Draw17%
Kayserispor9%
Galatasaray79%
Draw14%
Kayserispor7%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 12
Team strength
Galatasaray
Kayserispor
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
57
AttackIn forecast
16
55
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasarayKayserispor
2.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.84
0.74
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.95
1.96
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
89%
Scored inContext
63%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
16.26
ShotsContext
10.79
5.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.79
35%
On target shareContext
35%
11.47
Shots in the boxContext
6.11
69%
Box shareContext
56%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
1.87
OffsidesContext
2.07
9.32
Shots allowedContext
14.26
3.39
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.53
2.63
BlocksContext
3.60
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
78%
Save rateContext
71%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
499
PassesContext
350
436
Accurate passesContext
279
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.68
12.11
FoulsContext
12.42
9.89
Fouls sufferedContext
12.84
1.84
Yellow cardsContext
2.47
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
70%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.00
ShotsContext
9.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
30%
On target shareContext
39%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.20
68%
Box shareContext
55%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.56
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.60
Shots allowedContext
15.30
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.22
BlocksContext
4.88
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
69%
Save rateContext
73%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
500
PassesContext
336
433
Accurate passesContext
268
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.40
FoulsContext
12.00
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kayserispor
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel613 km1,225 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Kayserispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 8.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 613 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,225 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
17E. Elmalı
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
34L. Torreira
99M. Lemina
77N. Lang
8Gabriel Sara
11Y. Akgün
45V. Osimhen
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
23L. Carole
4S. Denswil
6S. Güler
30A. Opoku
15Y. Aït Bennasser
7Miguel Cardoso
8L. Bénes
33F. Soyalp
28R. Civelek
9G. Onugkha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kayserispor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Kayserispor+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
2.40points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-0
- Scored
- 2.30
- Conceded
- 0.90
Kayserispor · Away
0.90points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-6-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Samsunspor | W 3–2 H | L 1–3 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 A | L 2–4 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | D 0–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Goztepe | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 2–1 A | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 AL 0–4 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rizespor | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 43 of 54 · 2.39 per game | 15 of 54 · 0.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
4 Galatasaray wins1 draws0 Kayserispor wins
Goals per game2.80 – 0.40
Over 2.580%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 20%
- 24 Aug 2025Kayserispor0–4Galatasaray
- 18 May 2025Galatasaray3–0Kayserispor
- 22 Dec 2024Kayserispor1–5Galatasaray
- 15 Jan 2024Galatasaray2–1Kayserispor
- 12 Aug 2023Kayserispor0–0Galatasaray
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.26 | 0.84 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.74 | 1.95 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.79 | 3.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 47% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 58% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 37% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Galatasaray | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 3.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.17 | 4.41 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.39 | 5.06 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 9.47 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 8/18 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 8/18 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 5/18 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.95 | 2.53 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 1.95 | |
| Match total | 4.06 | 4.48 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 8/19 | 74% 14/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 7/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Galatasaray | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 8.67 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 4.40
Red cards0.08league 0.24
Cards 5+42%league 45%
Fouls26.8league 25.9
Penalties0.33league 0.25
Home wins33%league 36%
GalatasarayNo previous matches with this referee.
Kayserispor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Sep 25H · Besiktas0–44
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray19 games · scored 43 · conceded 14
7
2
0-15
7
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
7
2
46-60
8
3
61-75
10
4
76-90
Kayserispor19 games · scored 16 · conceded 37
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
10
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
7
61-75
6
8
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
5
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
