Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kocaelispor. Galatasaray had 4 days of rest, Kocaelispor 6 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days4 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
Galatasaray72%
Draw18%
Kocaelispor10%
Galatasaray75%
Draw16%
Kocaelispor9%
Galatasaray71%
Draw18%
Kocaelispor11%
Galatasaray65%
Draw21%
Kocaelispor14%
Galatasaray71%
Draw18%
Kocaelispor11%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 19
Team strength
Galatasaray
Kocaelispor
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
57
AttackIn forecast
16
55
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasarayKocaelispor
2.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.82
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
89%
Scored inContext
57%
39%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
15.89
ShotsContext
9.89
5.46
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.19
34%
On target shareContext
31%
11.48
Shots in the boxContext
6.04
70%
Box shareContext
61%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.26
10.11
Shots allowedContext
11.04
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.80
BlocksContext
3.70
2.92
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.48
79%
Save rateContext
64%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
497
PassesContext
361
434
Accurate passesContext
288
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.11
FoulsContext
14.96
10.11
Fouls sufferedContext
12.89
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
2.18
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
80%
Scored inContext
40%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.80
ShotsContext
9.20
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.44
36%
On target shareContext
24%
9.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
69%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
3.14
OffsidesContext
2.44
15.80
Shots allowedContext
12.10
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.30
BlocksContext
4.50
4.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
76%
Save rateContext
63%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
444
PassesContext
363
370
Accurate passesContext
290
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.67
11.10
FoulsContext
16.80
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,464 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Kocaelispor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel197 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Apr | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 6 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,464 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
93S. Boey
20İ. Gündoğan
34L. Torreira
7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara
10L. Sané
53B. Yılmaz
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
83Serhat Öztaşdelen
99R. Rivas
6H. Smolčić
2A. Dijksteel
22A. Oğuz
8H. Keïta
14Show
20Mahamadou Susoho
98J. Nonge Boende
19S. Dursun
7Daniel Agyei
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Kocaelispor-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
2.57points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-3-0
- Scored
- 2.71
- Conceded
- 0.79
Kocaelispor · Away
0.92points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-7
- Scored
- 0.69
- Conceded
- 1.62
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Goztepe | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Besiktas | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–5 AW 2–0 H |
| Konyaspor | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 5–1 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Rizespor | W 3–0 AW 3–1 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 HW 4–0 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Samsunspor | W 3–2 H | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 67 of 81 · 2.48 per game | 31 of 81 · 1.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Galatasaray wins0 draws1 Kocaelispor wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 9 Nov 2025Kocaelispor1–0Galatasaray
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.36 | 0.82 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 1.96 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 32% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 36% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 39% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 43% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Galatasaray | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.00 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.46 | 4.26 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.58 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.04 | 8.26 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 13/26 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 13/26 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 9/26 | 15% 4/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 4.29 | 4.43 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 13/28 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 12/28 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Galatasaray | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.20 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.00 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 4.41
Red cards0.16league 0.21
Cards 5+37%league 45%
Fouls26.7league 26.1
Penalties0.42league 0.28
Home wins37%league 40%
Galatasaray2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D17 Jan 26H · Gazişehir Gaziantep1–13
- W26 Oct 25H · Goztepe3–11
Kocaelispor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W28 Nov 25H · Genclerbirligi1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray28 games · scored 66 · conceded 21
10
3
0-15
10
2
16-30
7
1
31-45
11
4
46-60
14
6
61-75
14
5
76-90
Kocaelispor28 games · scored 23 · conceded 32
1
4
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
5
5
61-75
6
12
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 19 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
