Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Galatasaray. Galatasaray had 3.9 days of rest, Kocaelispor 7 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days3.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Galatasaray75%
Draw15%
Kocaelispor10%
Galatasaray73%
Draw17%
Kocaelispor10%
Galatasaray76%
Draw15%
Kocaelispor9%
Galatasaray68%
Draw19%
Kocaelispor13%
Galatasaray74%
Draw16%
Kocaelispor10%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 30
Team strength
Galatasaray
Kocaelispor
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
57
AttackIn forecast
16
55
DefenceIn forecast
32
71
Form indexContext
68
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasarayKocaelispor
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
2.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
0.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
100%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
23.75
ShotsContext
10.75
8.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
36%
On target shareContext
42%
16.25
Shots in the boxContext
4.75
70%
Box shareContext
45%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
3.25
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.25
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
3.25
BlocksContext
3.25
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
64%
Save rateContext
80%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
491
PassesContext
439
429
Accurate passesContext
364
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.15
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.75
FoulsContext
12.00
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
14.75
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
2.24
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
18.20
ShotsContext
9.70
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
34%
On target shareContext
27%
12.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
71%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
3.11
OffsidesContext
2.25
8.90
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
2.75
BlocksContext
2.80
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
59%
Save rateContext
77%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
488
PassesContext
410
425
Accurate passesContext
339
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.00
FoulsContext
13.10
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
15.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
DWWWL
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km6,471 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 71 · 10 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected
Kocaelispor
LWWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel197 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 68 · 9 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · +4.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Sep | 7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 6,471 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
17E. Elmalı
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara
34L. Torreira
27Rafael Leão
11Y. Akgün
53B. Yılmaz
21D. Gül
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
83S. Öztaşdelen(G)
21M. Haïdara
6M. Maglica
4B. Zoukrou
2A. Dijksteel
20Mahamadou Susoho
14Show
10B. Kutlu
7Daniel Agyei
97F. Ayé
11Gonçalo Sousa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Kocaelispor+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Kocaelispor · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 3–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Galatasaray wins1 draws1 Kocaelispor wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 12 Apr 2026Galatasaray1–1Kocaelispor
- 9 Nov 2025Kocaelispor1–0Galatasaray
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 2.00 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 25% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Galatasaray | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 1.70 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 10% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 3.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.75 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.25 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 3.00 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Galatasaray | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 2.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.40 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 7.80 | 6.78 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.20 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.43league 3.67
Red cards0.20league 0.17
Cards 5+63%league 40%
Fouls24.9league 25.9
Penalties0.37league 0.36
Home wins40%league 43%
Galatasaray4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 Feb 26A · Konyaspor0–22
- W24 Jan 26A · Fatih Karagümrük3–12
- W18 Oct 25A · Istanbul Basaksehir2–16
- W10 May 25A · Trabzonspor2–02
KocaelisporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray4 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Kocaelispor4 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 23 · conceded 17
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
7
61-75
6
2
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 9
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
