Galatasaray vs Rizespor – 30 Aug 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 4 Sat, Aug 30 · 19:30 Rams Global Stadium, İstanbul

Galatasaray 1st · 9 pts · 3 played WWW

3–1Full time

Rizespor 14th · 1 pts · 2 played LD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Galatasaray were clear favourites.

Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 19). Galatasaray had 6 days of rest, Rizespor 14 and had to travel 970 km.

Away travel970 kmRest days6 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1

Galatasaray80%

Draw13%

Rizespor6%

Expected goals 2.78 – 0.70

Galatasaray79%

Draw14%

Rizespor7%

Expected goals 2.63 – 0.68

Galatasaray80%

Draw13%

Rizespor6%

Expected goals 2.78 – 0.70

Galatasaray74%

Draw17%

Rizespor9%

Expected goals 2.48 – 0.79

Galatasaray79%

Draw14%

Rizespor7%

Expected goals 2.63 – 0.68

Over 2.5 68% Both score 48% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz

Cards per match 2.3
Penalties per match 0.75
Matches 4

Team strength

Galatasaray

Rizespor

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 19

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

57 AttackIn forecast 22

55 DefenceIn forecast 35

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Galatasaray

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rizespor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Galatasaray

Rizespor

3.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00

0.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

3.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

0.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.67

+0.28 Goals minus xGContext -1.38

100% Scored inContext 0%

100% Clean sheetsContext 50%

19.00 ShotsContext 10.00

6.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.00

35% On target shareContext 20%

13.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

72% Box shareContext 70%

18% ConversionContext 0%

1.33 OffsidesContext 2.00

6.00 Shots allowedContext 13.00

2.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50

1.50 BlocksContext 3.50

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.00

100% Save rateContext 40%

66% PossessionIn forecast 57%

515 PassesContext 422

458 Accurate passesContext 348

89% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.30 Team ratingContext 6.88

10.67 FoulsContext 11.50

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 17.50

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 2 games

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

0.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

2.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.47

0.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

+0.35 Goals minus xGContext +0.23

100% Scored inContext 60%

80% Clean sheetsContext 30%

21.00 ShotsContext 11.90

7.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

37% On target shareContext 41%

15.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.10

73% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 14%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.29

7.40 Shots allowedContext 14.80

2.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

2.00 BlocksContext 3.90

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

96% Save rateContext 66%

63% PossessionIn forecast 47%

491 PassesContext 342

427 Accurate passesContext 277

87% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.38 Team ratingContext 7.02

10.70 FoulsContext 10.60

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Galatasaray

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,225 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rizespor

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel970 km1,780 km in 14d

Schedule load17%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Galatasaray	Rizespor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 17
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Aug	14Süper Lig 2025-2026, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	970 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,225 km	1,780 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	13.8	15.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Galatasaray Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

19G. Güvenç(G)

17E. Elmalı 42A. Bardakcı 6D. Sánchez 7R. Sallai

99M. Lemina 34L. Torreira

11Y. Akgün 8Gabriel Sara 10L. Sané

45V. Osimhen

Rizespor Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1E. Canpolat(G)

54M. Pala 5C. Højer 3S. Akaydin 2H. Aliqulov 37M. Şahin

20Q. Laçi 6G. Papanikolaou 10I. Olawoyin

9A. Sowe 11H. Dervişoğlu

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Galatasaray Absences are shown before kick-off

Rizespor Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Galatasaray+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Rizespor+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Galatasaray · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.00

Rizespor · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

4 Galatasaray wins0 draws0 Rizespor wins

Goals per game3.50 – 0.75 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

17 Feb 2025Rizespor1–2Galatasaray
14 Sep 2024Galatasaray5–0Rizespor
8 Mar 2024Galatasaray6–2Rizespor
28 Oct 2023Rizespor0–1Galatasaray

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Galatasaray	Rizespor	Forecast
Scored per game	3.33	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.50
Match goals	3.33	1.50	3.49
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	68%
Over 3.5	33%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	48%
Clean sheets	100%	50%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	3	2

	Galatasaray	Rizespor	Forecast
Scored per game	3.33	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.50
Match goals	3.33	1.50	3.49
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	68%
Over 3.5	33%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	48%
Clean sheets	100%	50%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	3	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Galatasaray	Rizespor	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	2.00
Corners conceded	3.33	4.00
Match total	8.33	6.00	9.41
Over 8.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	1.67	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	3.67	3.00	4.32
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	0% 0/2
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/2

	Galatasaray	Rizespor	League
Corners
Corners won	6.67	5.30
Corners conceded	3.11	4.50
Match total	9.78	9.80	9.41
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.30
Opponent cards	1.60	1.10
Match total	3.30	3.40	4.32
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.25league 4.13

Red cards0.00league 0.29

Cards 5+25%league 42%

Fouls25.0league 25.8

Penalties0.75league 0.38

Home wins50%league 42%

Galatasaray

No previous matches with this referee.

Rizespor

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.