Galatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 37). Galatasaray had 4 days of rest, Samsunspor 4 and had to travel 619 km.
Away travel619 kmRest days4 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Galatasaray68%
Draw19%
Samsunspor13%
Galatasaray66%
Draw21%
Samsunspor14%
Galatasaray67%
Draw20%
Samsunspor13%
Galatasaray60%
Draw22%
Samsunspor18%
Galatasaray66%
Draw20%
Samsunspor14%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 10
Team strength
Galatasaray
Samsunspor
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
57
AttackIn forecast
15
55
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSamsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GalatasaraySamsunspor
2.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
0.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.93
2.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
86%
Scored inContext
86%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
16.64
ShotsContext
13.00
5.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.29
36%
On target shareContext
33%
11.07
Shots in the boxContext
7.93
64%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.18
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.57
Shots allowedContext
11.57
3.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.21
2.58
BlocksContext
3.25
2.77
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
80%
Save rateContext
79%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
479
PassesContext
391
416
Accurate passesContext
321
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.21
FoulsContext
15.00
9.79
Fouls sufferedContext
10.64
1.79
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
2.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
-0.53
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
17.00
ShotsContext
14.40
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
35%
On target shareContext
37%
11.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
62%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.25
9.20
Shots allowedContext
9.40
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
2.75
BlocksContext
2.50
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
70%
Save rateContext
74%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
446
PassesContext
402
383
Accurate passesContext
329
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.50
FoulsContext
14.00
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Galatasaray
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Samsunspor
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel619 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Galatasaray |
Samsunspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Dec | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 619 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,238 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
88K. Karataş
42A. Bardakcı
99M. Lemina
6D. Sánchez
34L. Torreira
20İ. Gündoğan
53B. Yılmaz
8Gabriel Sara
10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tomasson
4R. van Drongelen
24T. Borevković
18Z. Yavru
29A. Makoumbou
7A. Musaba
6E. Aydin
21C. Holse
11E. Kılınç
19P. Ndiaye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Galatasaray
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Samsunspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Galatasaray+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Samsunspor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Galatasaray · Home
2.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-0
- Scored
- 2.29
- Conceded
- 0.86
Samsunspor · Away
2.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-0
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Galatasaray | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Rizespor | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Kayserispor | W 4–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 27 of 36 · 2.25 per game | 24 of 36 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 Galatasaray wins0 draws0 Samsunspor wins
Goals per game2.75 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 11 Apr 2025Samsunspor0–2Galatasaray
- 10 Nov 2024Galatasaray3–2Samsunspor
- 2 Feb 2024Samsunspor0–2Galatasaray
- 16 Sep 2023Galatasaray4–2Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Galatasaray | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.07 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.64 | 0.93 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.36 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 71% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Galatasaray | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.40 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Galatasaray | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.77 | 4.85 | |
| Match total | 8.77 | 10.23 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 6/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 4/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 2.07 | |
| Match total | 4.36 | 4.50 | 4.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 7/14 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 6/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Galatasaray | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.23 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.20 | 4.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.80league 4.47
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+20%league 48%
Fouls23.6league 26.3
Penalties0.20league 0.28
Home wins50%league 36%
Galatasaray1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 Apr 25H · BB Bodrumspor2–01
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Galatasaray14 games · scored 29 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
6
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
8
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Samsunspor14 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
61-75
1
3
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
5
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
