Gazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gazişehir Gaziantep
9th · 33 pts · 27 played
LDDWL
1–1Full time
Alanyaspor
10th · 31 pts · 27 played
LLDDW
Our take
Gazişehir Gaziantep were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Gazişehir Gaziantep had 17.9 days of rest, Alanyaspor 17 and had to travel 483 km.
Away travel483 kmRest days17.9 · 17Matches / 14d0 · 0
Gazişehir Gaziantep42%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor31%
Gazişehir Gaziantep42%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor31%
Gazişehir Gaziantep42%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor31%
Gazişehir Gaziantep35%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor38%
Gazişehir Gaziantep42%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor31%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gaziantep)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
- Cards per match 6.2
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 21
Team strength
Gazişehir GaziantepAlanyaspor
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
15
AttackIn forecast
18
18
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Gazişehir GaziantepAlanyaspor
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.19
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
74%
Scored inContext
74%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.67
ShotsContext
12.33
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.96
34%
On target shareContext
32%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
7.74
60%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.94
13.48
Shots allowedContext
10.22
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.92
3.44
BlocksContext
2.57
3.31
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.76
64%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
371
PassesContext
394
305
Accurate passesContext
331
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.19
FoulsContext
11.74
16.26
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
2.93
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.72
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.80
ShotsContext
13.80
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
39%
On target shareContext
30%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
66%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.17
12.80
Shots allowedContext
10.10
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.60
BlocksContext
2.10
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
62%
Save rateContext
54%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
328
PassesContext
391
261
Accurate passesContext
332
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.60
FoulsContext
9.90
16.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest17.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alanyaspor
Rest17 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel483 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gazişehir Gaziantep |
Alanyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 17.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Mar | 17Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 483 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
20Z. Görgen(G)
4A. Kızıldağ
23T. Sanuç
30N. Sangaré
11C. Lungoyi
3D. Camara
10K. Kozłowski
2Luis Pérez
6M. Kabasakal
44A. Maxim
9M. Bayo
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
48Paulo Victor(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
11Ruan
17N. Janvier
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
16U. Hwang
14I. Hagi
10G. Yalçın
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alanyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gazişehir Gaziantep-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Alanyaspor+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Home
1.23points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-5
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.69
Alanyaspor · Away
0.92points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-9-3
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 1.54
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce | L 1–4 AL 0–4 H | L 2–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–1 AW 3–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | W 5–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HW 3–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–5 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Besiktas | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–2 H | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Kayserispor | W 3–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Points | 32 of 78 · 1.23 per game | 30 of 78 · 1.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins1 draws3 Alanyaspor wins
Goals per game0.60 – 1.40
Over 2.560%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets40% · 80%
- 3 Nov 2025Alanyaspor0–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 9 May 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep0–1Alanyaspor
- 14 Dec 2024Alanyaspor3–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 2 Apr 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep0–3Alanyaspor
- 11 Nov 2023Alanyaspor0–3Gazişehir Gaziantep
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.19 | |
| Match goals | 3.04 | 2.41 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 48% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 59% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 26% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.23 | 4.91 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.27 | 3.52 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 8.43 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 15/26 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 12/26 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 12/26 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.11 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 6.11 | 4.44 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 85% 23/27 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 74% 20/27 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 8.44 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 5.10 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.90league 4.41
Red cards0.29league 0.21
Cards 5+71%league 44%
Fouls24.5league 26.0
Penalties0.38league 0.27
Home wins38%league 39%
Gazişehir Gaziantep2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 5.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L27 Oct 25H · Fenerbahce0–44
- W23 Aug 25H · Genclerbirligi2–13
Alanyaspor4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D4 Oct 25A · Genclerbirligi2–23
- D16 Aug 25H · Rizespor0–01
- W25 May 25A · Konyaspor2–15
- W21 Apr 25H · Samsunspor1–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gazişehir Gaziantep27 games · scored 36 · conceded 46
4
6
0-15
5
10
16-30
8
4
31-45
4
4
46-60
10
7
61-75
5
15
76-90
Alanyaspor27 games · scored 33 · conceded 32
6
6
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
8
46-60
5
4
61-75
10
9
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
7
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
4
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
