Gazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gazişehir Gaziantep
6th · 14 pts · 8 played
WWDDW
3–2Full time
Antalyaspor
10th · 10 pts · 8 played
LWDLL
Our take
Gazişehir Gaziantep were slight favourites.
Gazişehir Gaziantep were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 15). Absences weigh more on Antalyaspor. Gazişehir Gaziantep had 14 days of rest, Antalyaspor 15.9 and had to travel 594 km.
Away travel594 kmRest days14 · 15.9Matches / 14d1 · 0
Gazişehir Gaziantep54%
Draw24%
Antalyaspor21%
Gazişehir Gaziantep52%
Draw25%
Antalyaspor23%
Gazişehir Gaziantep53%
Draw25%
Antalyaspor22%
Gazişehir Gaziantep47%
Draw26%
Antalyaspor27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep54%
Draw24%
Antalyaspor22%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gaziantep)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeErdem Mertoglu
Team strength
Gazişehir GaziantepAntalyaspor
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
15
AttackIn forecast
11
18
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Gazişehir GaziantepAntalyaspor
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
0.79
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
75%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
14.88
ShotsContext
9.13
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.75
29%
On target shareContext
52%
8.63
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
55%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.00
Shots allowedContext
14.88
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.88
BlocksContext
2.88
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
62%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
391
PassesContext
358
323
Accurate passesContext
287
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.63
FoulsContext
11.63
17.38
Fouls sufferedContext
14.13
3.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.38
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.90
ShotsContext
9.40
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
32%
On target shareContext
47%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
58%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.70
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.20
BlocksContext
2.67
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
61%
Save rateContext
65%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
375
PassesContext
371
308
Accurate passesContext
301
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.60
FoulsContext
11.70
16.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,700 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Antalyaspor
Rest15.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel594 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gazişehir Gaziantep |
Antalyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 15.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 594 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,700 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
71M. Bozan(G)
77K. Rodrigues
23T. Sanuç
4A. Kızıldağ
44A. Maxim
6M. Kabasakal
11C. Lungoyi
3D. Camara
10K. Kozłowski
2Luis Pérez
9M. Bayo
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
3K. Paal
14G. Dzhikiya
30L. Giannetti
7B. Balcı
6S. Dikmen
26N. Storm
8R. Safouri
10A. Ömür
11S. Ballet
9T. Čvančara
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Antalyaspor
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+1.8 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- Antalyaspor-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Antalyaspor · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Samsunspor | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 11 of 15 · 2.20 per game | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins1 draws1 Antalyaspor wins
Goals per game0.75 – 0.25
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets75% · 50%
- 18 May 2025Antalyaspor0–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 22 Dec 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep2–0Antalyaspor
- 4 Mar 2024Antalyaspor1–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 21 Oct 2023Gazişehir Gaziantep1–0Antalyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 63% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 63% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 9.13 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.63 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 7.13 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 8/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 8/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.50 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.60 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 6.70 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Gazişehir Gaziantep8 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Antalyaspor8 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
