Gazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gazişehir Gaziantep
10th · 37 pts · 31 played
LDLWL
0–2Full time
Besiktas
4th · 56 pts · 31 played
WLWLD
Our take
Besiktas were slight favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 19). Absences weigh more on Besiktas. Gazişehir Gaziantep had 6.2 days of rest, Besiktas 4 and had to travel 850 km.
Away travel850 kmRest days6.2 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Gazişehir Gaziantep29%
Draw25%
Besiktas47%
Gazişehir Gaziantep28%
Draw27%
Besiktas45%
Gazişehir Gaziantep28%
Draw25%
Besiktas48%
Gazişehir Gaziantep22%
Draw23%
Besiktas55%
Gazişehir Gaziantep29%
Draw25%
Besiktas46%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gaziantep)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAbdullah Bugra Taskinsoy
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 4
Team strength
Gazişehir GaziantepBesiktas
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
15
AttackIn forecast
60
18
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBesiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Gazişehir GaziantepBesiktas
1.32
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.74
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.16
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
74%
Scored inContext
84%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.74
ShotsContext
15.90
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.06
35%
On target shareContext
38%
7.81
Shots in the boxContext
10.26
60%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.61
Shots allowedContext
11.52
5.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.72
3.55
BlocksContext
2.93
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
65%
Save rateContext
72%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
378
PassesContext
431
313
Accurate passesContext
358
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.16
FoulsContext
12.61
15.97
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.87
Yellow cardsContext
2.26
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.80
ShotsContext
15.50
5.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
42%
On target shareContext
35%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
64%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.75
13.80
Shots allowedContext
10.40
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
4.00
BlocksContext
2.70
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
67%
Save rateContext
78%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
366
PassesContext
445
302
Accurate passesContext
373
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.30
FoulsContext
12.40
15.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,700 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Besiktas
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel850 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gazişehir Gaziantep |
Besiktas |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 850 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,700 km | 1,238 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
20Z. Görgen(G)
77K. Rodrigues
5N. Mujakić
14L. Abena
30N. Sangaré
18D. Sorescu
44A. Maxim
8V. Gidado
3D. Camara
10K. Kozłowski
9M. Bayo
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
58Y. Özcan
14O. Uduokhai
35Tiago Djaló
22T. Bulut
23K. Asllani
8S. Uçan
26Jota Silva
15Junior Olaitan
11C. Ünder
91M. Hekimoğlu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gazişehir Gaziantep
Absences are shown before kick-off
Besiktas
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Besiktas-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Home
1.33points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-5
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.53
Besiktas · Away
1.67points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-4
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Kayserispor | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | W 1–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Rizespor | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–4 AL 0–4 H | L 0–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–1 AW 3–2 H | W 4–2 HW 3–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HW 3–2 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–5 A | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–1 H | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 36 of 90 · 1.20 per game | 55 of 90 · 1.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins2 draws1 Besiktas wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 8 Dec 2025Besiktas2–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 10 Mar 2025Besiktas1–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 6 Oct 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep1–1Besiktas
- 11 Mar 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep2–0Besiktas
- 30 Oct 2023Besiktas2–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.32 | 1.74 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 1.16 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.90 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 58% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 58% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 16% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.60 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.97 | 5.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.27 | |
| Match total | 10.17 | 10.00 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 17/30 | 60% 18/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 13/30 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 13/30 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.03 | 2.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.94 | 3.13 | |
| Match total | 5.97 | 5.52 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 87% 27/31 | 81% 25/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 74% 23/31 | 58% 18/31 | |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 10.20 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.70 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Abdullah Bugra Taskinsoy Türkiye · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.46
Red cards0.25league 0.22
Cards 5+50%league 46%
Fouls24.3league 26.0
Penalties0.25league 0.28
Home wins25%league 41%
Gazişehir GaziantepNo previous matches with this referee.
BesiktasNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gazişehir Gaziantep31 games · scored 41 · conceded 52
4
6
0-15
7
10
16-30
9
5
31-45
4
4
46-60
11
9
61-75
6
18
76-90
Besiktas31 games · scored 54 · conceded 36
12
3
0-15
6
6
16-30
11
6
31-45
9
8
46-60
7
5
61-75
9
8
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
7
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
4
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
