Gazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gazişehir Gaziantep
9th · 29 pts · 24 played
LWLLD
1–1Full time
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 13 pts · 24 played
LWLDL
Our take
Gazişehir Gaziantep were slight favourites.
Gazişehir Gaziantep were the stronger side on L90 Strength (20 vs 11). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fatih Karagümrük. Gazişehir Gaziantep had 6.7 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 8.7 and had to travel 850 km.
Away travel850 kmRest days6.7 · 8.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Gazişehir Gaziantep47%
Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep53%
Draw25%
Fatih Karagümrük22%
Gazişehir Gaziantep47%
Draw28%
Fatih Karagümrük26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep40%
Draw28%
Fatih Karagümrük32%
Gazişehir Gaziantep47%
Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük26%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gaziantep)
No weather data yet
RefereeÖmer Tolga Güldibi
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 7
Team strength
Gazişehir GaziantepFatih Karagümrük
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
11
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
15
AttackIn forecast
13
18
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Gazişehir GaziantepFatih Karagümrük
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.88
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
71%
Scored inContext
58%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.71
ShotsContext
10.29
4.26
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.32
32%
On target shareContext
30%
7.75
Shots in the boxContext
5.58
60%
Box shareContext
54%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.72
OffsidesContext
2.55
13.46
Shots allowedContext
13.92
4.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.96
3.42
BlocksContext
3.13
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.91
64%
Save rateContext
63%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
379
PassesContext
361
313
Accurate passesContext
285
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.64
13.00
FoulsContext
13.38
16.67
Fouls sufferedContext
14.33
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.96
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
70%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.30
ShotsContext
9.90
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
29%
On target shareContext
35%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
64%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
1.56
OffsidesContext
2.40
14.70
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
4.30
BlocksContext
2.30
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
65%
Save rateContext
57%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
335
PassesContext
375
268
Accurate passesContext
305
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.66
13.00
FoulsContext
12.40
17.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
3.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest6.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km956 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel850 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gazişehir Gaziantep |
Fatih Karagümrük |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 8.7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 850 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 956 km | 1,807 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.3 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
20Z. Görgen(G)
77K. Rodrigues
5N. Mujakić
23T. Sanuç
2Luis Pérez
44A. Maxim
6M. Kabasakal
11C. Lungoyi
3D. Camara
17K. Gassama
9M. Bayo
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
25F. Mladenović
3Igor Lichnovsky
4D. Biraschi
47Ricardo Esgaio
6B. Elmaz
5M. Kranevitter
72Baris Kalayci
8B. Özcan
10D. Verde
23S. Larsson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fatih Karagümrük
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Home
1.25points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-5
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.75
Fatih Karagümrük · Away
0.33points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-10
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 2.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | D 0–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 AL 3–4 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HW 3–2 A | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–5 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Besiktas | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Kayserispor | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–4 H | L 1–2 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 26 of 69 · 1.13 per game | 13 of 69 · 0.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins0 draws0 Fatih Karagümrük wins
Goals per game2.67 – 0.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 5 Oct 2025Fatih Karagümrük0–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 18 May 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep3–1Fatih Karagümrük
- 23 Dec 2023Fatih Karagümrük0–3Gazişehir Gaziantep
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.92 | 2.75 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 42% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.74 | 5.08 | |
| Match total | 9.87 | 8.71 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 12/23 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 9/23 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 9/23 | 25% 6/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.21 | 2.04 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.17 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 6.38 | 4.17 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 88% 21/24 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 79% 19/24 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 7.80 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 6.20 | 4.10 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ömer Tolga Güldibi 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.29league 4.43
Red cards0.00league 0.22
Cards 5+57%league 45%
Fouls27.7league 25.9
Penalties0.14league 0.25
Home wins43%league 38%
Gazişehir Gaziantep1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L29 Nov 25H · Eyüpspor1–21
Fatih Karagümrük2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L31 Jan 26A · Goztepe1–25
- L3 Nov 25A · Rizespor0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gazişehir Gaziantep24 games · scored 30 · conceded 40
4
6
0-15
5
10
16-30
8
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
9
5
61-75
3
13
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük24 games · scored 21 · conceded 45
2
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
4
7
31-45
1
8
46-60
2
13
61-75
8
6
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
1
1
0-15
3
5
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
6
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
31-45
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
