Gazişehir Gaziantep vs Fenerbahce – 27 Oct 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 10 Mon, Oct 27 · 17:00 Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep

Gazişehir Gaziantep 5th · 17 pts · 9 played WDDWW

0–4Full time

Fenerbahce 3rd · 19 pts · 9 played DDWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce were slight favourites.

Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 24). Gazişehir Gaziantep had 8.1 days of rest, Fenerbahce 4 and had to travel 850 km.

Away travel850 kmRest days8.1 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 2

Gazişehir Gaziantep21%

Draw24%

Fenerbahce55%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.87

Gazişehir Gaziantep21%

Draw25%

Fenerbahce54%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.75

Gazişehir Gaziantep21%

Draw24%

Fenerbahce55%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.83

Gazişehir Gaziantep16%

Draw21%

Fenerbahce63%

Expected goals 0.96 – 2.09

Gazişehir Gaziantep21%

Draw24%

Fenerbahce54%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.79

Over 2.5 56% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Gaziantep)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan

Cards per match 6.1
Penalties per match 0.47
Matches 15

Team strength

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Fenerbahce

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 63

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

15 AttackIn forecast 75

18 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Fenerbahce

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.56

1.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.67

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.95

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.70

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.39

78% Scored inContext 78%

22% Clean sheetsContext 44%

15.67 ShotsContext 16.33

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33

30% On target shareContext 33%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.89

55% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.43

12.33 Shots allowedContext 9.11

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.67

2.78 BlocksContext 3.57

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57

61% Save rateContext 86%

55% PossessionIn forecast 62%

418 PassesContext 494

352 Accurate passesContext 429

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.93 Team ratingContext 7.03

13.22 FoulsContext 12.78

17.11 Fouls sufferedContext 14.67

3.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.22

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.76

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.10 ShotsContext 15.50

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

32% On target shareContext 35%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

55% Box shareContext 53%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.63

13.00 Shots allowedContext 9.50

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

3.20 BlocksContext 3.25

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

61% Save rateContext 83%

55% PossessionIn forecast 59%

414 PassesContext 493

348 Accurate passesContext 424

84% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.92

13.00 FoulsContext 12.10

16.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

3.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fenerbahce

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel850 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Oct	4UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	850 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Gazişehir Gaziantep Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

71M. Bozan(G)

77K. Rodrigues 14L. Abena 4A. Kızıldağ 2Luis Pérez

44A. Maxim 6M. Kabasakal

11C. Lungoyi 3D. Camara 10K. Kozłowski

9M. Bayo

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

31Ederson(G)

3A. Brown 24J. Oosterwolde 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

11E. Álvarez

9M. Aktürkoğlu 5İ. Yüksek 21Marco Asensio 45D. Nene

19Y. En-Nesyri

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Gazişehir Gaziantep Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fenerbahce Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Gazişehir Gaziantep-0.2 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Fenerbahce+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Gazişehir Gaziantep · Home 2.00points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-1
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 1.60

Fenerbahce · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

Opponent	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Fenerbahce
Antalyaspor	W 3–2 H	W 2–0 H
Fatih Karagümrük	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 H
Samsunspor	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 A
Trabzonspor	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Kocaelispor	W 2–0 H	W 3–1 H
Kasimpasa	W 3–2 A	D 1–1 A
Genclerbirligi	W 2–1 H	W 3–1 A
Points	17 of 21 · 2.43 per game	17 of 21 · 2.43 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins0 draws4 Fenerbahce wins

Goals per game0.75 – 2.25 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%

26 Apr 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep1–3Fenerbahce
2 Dec 2024Fenerbahce3–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
14 Jan 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep0–1Fenerbahce
13 Aug 2023Fenerbahce2–1Gazişehir Gaziantep

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.56
Conceded per game	1.56	0.67
Match goals	3.22	2.22	2.94
Over 1.5	100%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	44%	56%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	56%	56%	56%
Clean sheets	22%	44%
Failed to score	22%	22%
Games	9	9

	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.50
Conceded per game	1.56	0.90
Match goals	3.22	2.40	2.94
Over 1.5	100%	70%
Over 2.5	67%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	33%	30%
Both teams scored	56%	60%	56%
Clean sheets	22%	40%
Failed to score	22%	10%
Games	9	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	5.56	5.17
Corners conceded	4.33	4.33
Match total	9.89	9.50	9.72
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	3.78	2.33
Opponent cards	3.78	3.56
Match total	7.56	5.89	5.05
Over 3.5	100% 9/9	67% 6/9
Over 4.5	100% 9/9	67% 6/9

	Gazişehir Gaziantep	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	4.88
Corners conceded	4.60	4.88
Match total	9.80	9.76	9.72
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	3.40	2.70
Opponent cards	3.70	2.80
Match total	7.10	5.50	5.05
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 15 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.93league 4.74

Red cards0.13league 0.28

Cards 5+73%league 56%

Fouls24.4league 26.4

Penalties0.47league 0.28

Home wins47%league 38%

Gazişehir Gaziantep1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 6.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W23 Aug 25H · Genclerbirligi2–13

Fenerbahce

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.