Gazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gazişehir Gaziantep
11th · 34 pts · 29 played
DWLDL
3–0Full time
Kayserispor
17th · 23 pts · 29 played
LLWLL
Our take
Gazişehir Gaziantep were slight favourites.
Gazişehir Gaziantep were the stronger side on L90 Strength (20 vs 13). Gazişehir Gaziantep had 7 days of rest, Kayserispor 9 and had to travel 250 km.
Away travel250 kmRest days7 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Gazişehir Gaziantep50%
Draw26%
Kayserispor24%
Gazişehir Gaziantep51%
Draw25%
Kayserispor23%
Gazişehir Gaziantep50%
Draw26%
Kayserispor24%
Gazişehir Gaziantep43%
Draw27%
Kayserispor30%
Gazişehir Gaziantep50%
Draw26%
Kayserispor24%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gaziantep)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
- Cards per match 6.0
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 23
Team strength
Gazişehir GaziantepKayserispor
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
15
AttackIn forecast
16
18
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Gazişehir GaziantepKayserispor
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.72
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
76%
Scored inContext
59%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
12.62
ShotsContext
10.93
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.52
35%
On target shareContext
32%
7.72
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
60%
Box shareContext
55%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
1.82
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.55
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.21
3.62
BlocksContext
3.96
3.32
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.92
65%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
373
PassesContext
351
307
Accurate passesContext
280
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.68
13.34
FoulsContext
12.79
16.28
Fouls sufferedContext
12.66
2.93
Yellow cardsContext
2.41
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.56
80%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.70
ShotsContext
11.20
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
44%
On target shareContext
27%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
65%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
5%
1.89
OffsidesContext
3.22
13.00
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.00
BlocksContext
4.56
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
60%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
354
PassesContext
353
289
Accurate passesContext
282
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.90
FoulsContext
13.50
16.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,034 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kayserispor
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel250 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gazişehir Gaziantep |
Kayserispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Apr | 9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 250 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,034 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
20Z. Görgen(G)
77K. Rodrigues
14L. Abena
4A. Kızıldağ
18D. Sorescu
3D. Camara
8V. Gidado
44A. Maxim
11C. Lungoyi
9M. Bayo
10K. Kozłowski
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
30J. Brenet
4S. Denswil
6S. Güler
2J. Katongo
15Y. Aït Bennasser
33F. Soyalp
7Miguel Cardoso
8L. Bénes
11S. Mather
63F. Chalov
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kayserispor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gazişehir Gaziantep-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Kayserispor+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Home
1.21points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-5
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.64
Kayserispor · Away
0.73points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-8-6
- Scored
- 0.73
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–4 AL 0–4 H | L 0–4 HL 2–4 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–1 AW 3–2 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 HL 0–4 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HW 3–2 A | L 0–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | L 0–4 AL 0–4 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–5 A | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 AL 0–4 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 31 of 84 · 1.11 per game | 23 of 84 · 0.82 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins2 draws1 Kayserispor wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.00
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 22 Nov 2025Kayserispor0–3Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 15 Mar 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep1–0Kayserispor
- 19 Oct 2024Kayserispor2–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 3 Feb 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep1–1Kayserispor
- 16 Sep 2023Kayserispor2–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 0.72 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.59 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 48% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 66% | 48% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 41% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.20 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.96 | 4.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 4.81 | |
| Match total | 10.21 | 9.62 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 16/28 | 74% 20/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 12/28 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 12/28 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.97 | 1.76 | |
| Match total | 6.07 | 4.24 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 25/29 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 76% 22/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.90 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 3.80 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.74league 4.45
Red cards0.26league 0.22
Cards 5+70%league 45%
Fouls25.4league 26.1
Penalties0.35league 0.28
Home wins39%league 39%
Gazişehir Gaziantep3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D4 Apr 26H · Alanyaspor1–12
- L27 Oct 25H · Fenerbahce0–44
- W23 Aug 25H · Genclerbirligi2–13
Kayserispor3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D14 Sep 25H · Goztepe1–14
- L1 Jun 25A · Samsunspor1–23
- W27 Apr 25H · Rizespor1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gazişehir Gaziantep29 games · scored 38 · conceded 49
4
6
0-15
6
10
16-30
8
5
31-45
4
4
46-60
11
7
61-75
5
17
76-90
Kayserispor29 games · scored 21 · conceded 54
1
4
0-15
4
16-30
1
14
31-45
4
9
46-60
6
12
61-75
9
11
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
7
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
