Gazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gazişehir Gaziantep
10th · 6 pts · 4 played
LLWW
2–0Full time
Kocaelispor
16th · 1 pts · 4 played
LLLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Gazişehir Gaziantep had 15 days of rest, Kocaelispor 15 and had to travel 906 km.
Away travel906 kmRest days15 · 15Matches / 14d0 · 0
Gazişehir Gaziantep40%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor32%
Gazişehir Gaziantep40%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor33%
Gazişehir Gaziantep40%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor32%
Gazişehir Gaziantep33%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor39%
Gazişehir Gaziantep40%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor33%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gaziantep)
No weather data yet
RefereeYigit Arslan
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.75
- Matches 4
Team strength
Gazişehir GaziantepKocaelispor
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
15
AttackIn forecast
16
18
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Gazişehir GaziantepKocaelispor
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
1.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
50%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.50
ShotsContext
9.75
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.75
24%
On target shareContext
28%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
61%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
5%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.25
Shots allowedContext
14.25
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
2.25
BlocksContext
3.50
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
53%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
372
PassesContext
297
309
Accurate passesContext
222
83%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.58
13.50
FoulsContext
12.75
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
50%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.30
ShotsContext
9.75
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.75
32%
On target shareContext
28%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
55%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
5%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.40
Shots allowedContext
14.25
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
3.33
BlocksContext
3.50
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
63%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
376
PassesContext
297
309
Accurate passesContext
222
82%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.58
13.40
FoulsContext
12.75
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.25
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kocaelispor
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel906 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gazişehir Gaziantep |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15Süper Lig 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 15Süper Lig 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 906 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
71M. Bozan(G)
77K. Rodrigues
14L. Abena
23T. Sanuç
2Luis Pérez
61O. Özçiçek
6M. Kabasakal
11C. Lungoyi
10K. Kozłowski
18D. Sorescu
44A. Maxim
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
1A. Jovanović(G)
21M. Haïdara
6H. Smolčić
5B. Balogh
75T. Bingöl
98J. Nonge Boende
10K. Linetty
23S. Yalçın
17D. Churlinov
9B. Petković
70C. Keles
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gazişehir Gaziantep
Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Kocaelispor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Kocaelispor · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.00 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 25% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.00 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 25% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 8.25 | 10.00 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.25 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.75 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 4.25 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 4/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 4/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 10.00 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 4.25 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 75% 3/4 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yigit Arslan 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.25
Red cards0.50league 0.28
Cards 5+25%league 44%
Fouls23.3league 25.3
Penalties0.75league 0.28
Home wins50%league 36%
Gazişehir GaziantepNo previous matches with this referee.
KocaelisporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gazişehir Gaziantep4 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Kocaelispor4 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
5
61-75
1
4
76-90
Kocaelispor4 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
