Gazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gazişehir Gaziantep
9th · 28 pts · 22 played
DDLWL
1–2Full time
Trabzonspor
3rd · 45 pts · 22 played
WWDWL
Our take
Trabzonspor were slight favourites.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Trabzonspor. Gazişehir Gaziantep had 7.1 days of rest, Trabzonspor 7.8 and had to travel 483 km.
Away travel483 kmRest days7.1 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Gazişehir Gaziantep21%
Draw24%
Trabzonspor55%
Gazişehir Gaziantep28%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor45%
Gazişehir Gaziantep21%
Draw24%
Trabzonspor55%
Gazişehir Gaziantep16%
Draw22%
Trabzonspor62%
Gazişehir Gaziantep22%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor54%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gaziantep)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCagdas Altay
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 12
Team strength
Gazişehir GaziantepTrabzonspor
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
15
AttackIn forecast
54
18
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTrabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Gazişehir GaziantepTrabzonspor
1.32
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.95
1.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.18
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
73%
Scored inContext
91%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
12.91
ShotsContext
15.36
4.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.68
32%
On target shareContext
37%
7.82
Shots in the boxContext
9.57
59%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.69
OffsidesContext
2.31
13.55
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
3.27
BlocksContext
3.85
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
63%
Save rateContext
76%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
379
PassesContext
422
313
Accurate passesContext
364
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.18
FoulsContext
12.05
16.77
Fouls sufferedContext
13.64
3.09
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.71
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.90
ShotsContext
17.50
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.10
30%
On target shareContext
41%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
63%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.50
15.10
Shots allowedContext
11.20
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
4.20
BlocksContext
3.22
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
66%
Save rateContext
60%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
330
PassesContext
450
263
Accurate passesContext
396
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.95
13.20
FoulsContext
12.20
17.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,813 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Trabzonspor
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel483 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gazişehir Gaziantep |
Trabzonspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 7.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 483 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,813 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
20Z. Görgen(G)
77K. Rodrigues
4A. Kızıldağ
23T. Sanuç
2Luis Pérez
11C. Lungoyi
44A. Maxim
61O. Özçiçek
10K. Kozłowski
17K. Gassama
9M. Bayo
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
44A. Batagov
15S. Savić
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
19M. Eskihellaç
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
42Christ Inao Oulaï
20Wagner Pina
10E. Muçi
30E. Onuachu
99F. da Silva
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Trabzonspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Trabzonspor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Home
1.36points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-4
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.73
Trabzonspor · Away
2.09points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–1 HW 3–2 A | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 3–4 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | D 0–0 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–5 A | W 4–3 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Besiktas | D 2–2 A | D 3–3 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Kayserispor | W 3–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–4 H | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 A | W 4–3 A |
| Samsunspor | D 2–2 H | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Points | 27 of 63 · 1.29 per game | 44 of 63 · 2.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins2 draws3 Trabzonspor wins
Goals per game1.20 – 2.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 20 Sep 2025Trabzonspor1–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 23 Feb 2025Trabzonspor3–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 23 Sep 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep0–0Trabzonspor
- 28 Apr 2024Trabzonspor4–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 10 Dec 2023Gazişehir Gaziantep1–3Trabzonspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.32 | 1.95 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.73 | 1.18 | |
| Match goals | 3.05 | 3.14 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 55% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 64% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 9% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.30 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.76 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 9.45 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 11/21 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 8/21 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 8/21 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.32 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.36 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 6.68 | 4.36 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 91% 20/22 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 86% 19/22 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 9.50 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 6.30 | 4.80 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 90% 9/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cagdas Altay Türkiye · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 4.49
Red cards0.17league 0.22
Cards 5+8%league 47%
Fouls24.5league 26.0
Penalties0.08league 0.27
Home wins42%league 38%
Gazişehir GaziantepNo previous matches with this referee.
Trabzonspor2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W11 Aug 25H · Kocaelispor1–02
- D18 May 25A · BB Bodrumspor1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gazişehir Gaziantep22 games · scored 29 · conceded 38
4
6
0-15
4
8
16-30
8
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
9
5
61-75
3
13
76-90
Trabzonspor22 games · scored 43 · conceded 26
5
2
0-15
5
7
16-30
8
7
31-45
10
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
11
5
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
7
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 25 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
5
5
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
9
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
