Genclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alanyaspor were slight favourites.
Alanyaspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 11). Absences weigh more on Genclerbirligi. Genclerbirligi had 5.8 days of rest, Alanyaspor 7.8 and had to travel 383 km.
Away travel383 kmRest days5.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Genclerbirligi28%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor45%
Genclerbirligi30%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor44%
Genclerbirligi29%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor43%
Genclerbirligi22%
Draw26%
Alanyaspor52%
Genclerbirligi28%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor45%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ankara)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
- Cards per match 5.9
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 13
Team strength
Genclerbirligi
Alanyaspor
11
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
13
AttackIn forecast
18
16
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenclerbirligiAlanyaspor
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
71%
Scored inContext
71%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
8.86
ShotsContext
10.71
2.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
29%
On target shareContext
33%
4.71
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
55%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.33
16.00
Shots allowedContext
10.71
3.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.86
4.80
BlocksContext
2.80
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
67%
Save rateContext
70%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
283
PassesContext
370
218
Accurate passesContext
297
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.86
FoulsContext
13.14
13.86
Fouls sufferedContext
15.86
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.29
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
71%
Scored inContext
80%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.86
ShotsContext
10.90
2.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
29%
On target shareContext
37%
4.71
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
55%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.20
16.00
Shots allowedContext
10.60
3.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
4.80
BlocksContext
2.86
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
67%
Save rateContext
76%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
283
PassesContext
402
218
Accurate passesContext
334
77%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.86
FoulsContext
12.90
13.86
Fouls sufferedContext
14.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.29
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genclerbirligi
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alanyaspor
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel383 km1,126 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genclerbirligi |
Alanyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 7.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 26 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 383 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 1,126 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 15.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
18E. Erentürk(G)
77A. Dursun
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
2T. da Silva
13Pedro Pereira
7H. Onyekuru
15A. Dele-Bashiru
35O. Ülgün
11G. Gürpüz
29M. Niang
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
88Y. Özdemir
58Maestro
42G. Makouta
11Ruan
14I. Hagi
27Ibrahim Kaya
9S. Mounié
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genclerbirligi
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alanyaspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genclerbirligi-1.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Alanyaspor+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Genclerbirligi · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Alanyaspor · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Genclerbirligi | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Rizespor | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–3 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Genclerbirligi | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.14 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Genclerbirligi | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.14 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genclerbirligi | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 8.83 | 7.25 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 4.71 | 4.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Genclerbirligi | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 8.83 | 7.14 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 4.50 | 4.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.77league 4.59
Red cards0.15league 0.29
Cards 5+69%league 51%
Fouls24.2league 26.6
Penalties0.46league 0.25
Home wins54%league 38%
Genclerbirligi1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.6.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L23 Aug 25A · Gazişehir Gaziantep1–26
Alanyaspor3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D16 Aug 25H · Rizespor0–01
- W25 May 25A · Konyaspor2–15
- W21 Apr 25H · Samsunspor1–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genclerbirligi7 games · scored 5 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Alanyaspor7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Genclerbirligi7 games · scored 5 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
