Genclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were slight favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Besiktas. Genclerbirligi had 6 days of rest, Besiktas 8 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days6 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Genclerbirligi19%
Draw25%
Besiktas56%
Genclerbirligi23%
Draw25%
Besiktas51%
Genclerbirligi19%
Draw25%
Besiktas56%
Genclerbirligi14%
Draw22%
Besiktas64%
Genclerbirligi20%
Draw25%
Besiktas55%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ankara)
No weather data yet
RefereeYasin Kol
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 34
Team strength
Genclerbirligi
Besiktas
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
13
AttackIn forecast
60
16
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBesiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenclerbirligiBesiktas
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
68%
Scored inContext
88%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
10.36
ShotsContext
15.88
3.74
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.16
33%
On target shareContext
39%
6.17
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
57%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.05
OffsidesContext
2.41
14.64
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
4.35
BlocksContext
3.08
3.08
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.65
70%
Save rateContext
71%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
306
PassesContext
421
239
Accurate passesContext
348
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.60
FoulsContext
12.68
13.04
Fouls sufferedContext
12.16
2.12
Yellow cardsContext
2.24
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.16
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.50
ShotsContext
17.10
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
33%
On target shareContext
39%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
59%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.11
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.67
BlocksContext
3.40
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
73%
Save rateContext
73%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
321
PassesContext
432
251
Accurate passesContext
355
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.95
13.00
FoulsContext
11.40
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genclerbirligi
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km768 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Besiktas
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genclerbirligi |
Besiktas |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Mar | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 768 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
2T. da Silva
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
13Pedro Pereira
15A. Dele-Bashiru
10M. Mimaroğlu
70F. Tongya
22S. Koïta
11G. Gürpüz
29M. Niang
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
35Tiago Djaló
12E. Agbadou
62A. Murillo
4O. Ndidi
15Junior Olaitan
10O. Kökçü
23K. Asllani
18V. Černý
9H. Oh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genclerbirligi
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Besiktas
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genclerbirligi+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Besiktas+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genclerbirligi · Home
1.58points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-3
- Scored
- 1.58
- Conceded
- 1.33
Besiktas · Away
1.83points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-2
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Genclerbirligi | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Kayserispor | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Eyüpspor | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H | L 2–3 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | W 4–3 H | D 3–3 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–1 A | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Konyaspor | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 22 of 72 · 0.92 per game | 46 of 72 · 1.92 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Genclerbirligi wins0 draws0 Besiktas wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 18 Oct 2025Besiktas1–2Genclerbirligi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genclerbirligi | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.48 | 3.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 12% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Genclerbirligi | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genclerbirligi | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 5.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.21 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.38 | 9.83 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 16/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 11/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 10/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.32 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.04 | |
| Match total | 4.32 | 5.44 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 14/25 | 80% 20/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 12/25 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Genclerbirligi | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.00 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 6.10 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yasin Kol 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.21league 4.44
Red cards0.41league 0.21
Cards 5+62%league 45%
Fouls26.6league 26.0
Penalties0.29league 0.27
Home wins35%league 38%
Genclerbirligi1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 Nov 25A · Goztepe0–11
Besiktas4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D26 Jan 26A · Eyüpspor2–21
- D4 Oct 25A · Galatasaray1–15
- W4 May 25A · Fenerbahce1–03
- W29 Mar 25H · Galatasaray2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genclerbirligi25 games · scored 28 · conceded 34
4
2
0-15
5
4
16-30
4
9
31-45
5
6
46-60
4
6
61-75
6
7
76-90
Besiktas25 games · scored 45 · conceded 30
9
3
0-15
6
5
16-30
9
6
31-45
7
4
46-60
6
5
61-75
8
7
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
