Genclerbirligi vs Erzurumspor FK – 28 Aug 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 3 Fri, Aug 28 · 19:30 Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

Genclerbirligi 1st · 6 pts · 2 played WW

1–1Full time

Erzurumspor FK 18th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Genclerbirligi were slight favourites.

Erzurumspor FK were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genclerbirligi. Genclerbirligi had 5 days of rest, Erzurumspor FK 7 and had to travel 718 km.

Away travel718 kmRest days5 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Genclerbirligi44%

Draw25%

Erzurumspor FK31%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.24

Genclerbirligi38%

Draw26%

Erzurumspor FK36%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.31

Genclerbirligi44%

Draw25%

Erzurumspor FK31%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.24

Genclerbirligi37%

Draw26%

Erzurumspor FK38%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.39

Genclerbirligi45%

Draw25%

Erzurumspor FK31%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.25

Over 2.5 52% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ankara)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeUmit Ozturk

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 11

Team strength

Genclerbirligi

Erzurumspor FK

18 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

15 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

13 AttackIn forecast 17

16 DefenceIn forecast 38

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genclerbirligi

Attack—

Defense risk—

Erzurumspor FK

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Genclerbirligi

Erzurumspor FK

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.50

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 0.36

2.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.29

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.36

100% Scored inContext 0%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.00 ShotsContext 8.50

2.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50

25% On target shareContext 29%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 4.50

60% Box shareContext 49%

15% ConversionContext 0%

— OffsidesContext —

21.50 Shots allowedContext 11.50

8.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

— BlocksContext 2.00

8.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —

94% Save rateContext 40%

39% PossessionIn forecast 51%

320 PassesContext 505

240 Accurate passesContext 442

75% Pass accuracyContext 88%

7.28 Team ratingContext 6.31

9.50 FoulsContext 11.50

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def —

1.25 xGVia Att/Def —

1.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext —

60% Scored inContext —

30% Clean sheetsContext —

10.30 ShotsContext —

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

30% On target shareContext —

6.10 Shots in the boxContext —

56% Box shareContext —

11% ConversionContext —

1.63 OffsidesContext —

12.80 Shots allowedContext —

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

3.22 BlocksContext —

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext —

80% Save rateContext —

48% PossessionIn forecast —

356 PassesContext —

282 Accurate passesContext —

79% Pass accuracyContext —

6.84 Team ratingContext —

11.20 FoulsContext —

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext —

1.80 Yellow cardsContext —

0.00 Red cardsContext —

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 0 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genclerbirligi WW

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,041 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 76 · 6 pts vs 2.8 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected

W23 AugA · Goztepe1–00.8 xPts
W15 AugH · Fenerbahce2–10.7 xPts

Erzurumspor FK LL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel718 km480 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 26 · 0 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected

L21 AugH · Galatasaray0–40.9 xPts
L16 AugA · Amed0–31.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genclerbirligi	Erzurumspor FK
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Süper Lig 2026-2027, 23 Aug	7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 21 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	718 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,041 km	480 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8.9	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genclerbirligi Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

70İ. Eğribayat(G)

77A. Dursun 4Žan Žužek 6D. Goutas 13Pedro Pereira

42Ousmane Diabate

7Tiago Gouveia 10F. Tongya 35O. Ülgün 14A. Traoré

20S. Koïta

Erzurumspor FK Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1M. Taşkıran(G)

15G. Giorbelidze 18N. Mujakić 22M. Yumlu 4A. Gerxhaliu 53O. Ovacıklı

65M. Rodríguez 6B. Baiye 42E. Owusu 99M. Fettahoğlu

10E. Tozlu

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genclerbirligi Absences are shown before kick-off

Erzurumspor FK Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Genclerbirligi+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Erzurumspor FK+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Genclerbirligi · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Erzurumspor FK · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Genclerbirligi	Erzurumspor FK	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.00
Conceded per game	0.50	3.50
Match goals	2.00	3.50	2.76
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	100%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	0%	55%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	2	2

	Genclerbirligi	Erzurumspor FK	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	0.00
Conceded per game	1.20	3.50
Match goals	2.30	3.50	2.76
Over 1.5	60%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	100%	52%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	30%	0%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	40%	100%
Games	10	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genclerbirligi	Erzurumspor FK	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	3.00
Corners conceded	9.00	3.00
Match total	12.00	6.00	9.69
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	1.00	0.50
Opponent cards	1.00	0.50
Match total	2.00	1.00	2.81
Over 3.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2

	Genclerbirligi	Erzurumspor FK	League
Corners
Corners won	3.30	3.00
Corners conceded	4.90	3.00
Match total	8.20	6.00	9.69
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	1.80	0.50
Opponent cards	2.60	0.50
Match total	4.40	1.00	2.81
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/2
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/2

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Umit Ozturk Türkiye · 11 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.18league 2.83

Red cards0.18league 0.17

Cards 5+55%league 28%

Fouls24.9league 25.6

Penalties0.36league 0.39

Home wins27%league 44%

Genclerbirligi1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D1 Mar 26H · Kayserispor0–01

Erzurumspor FK

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.