Genclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Genclerbirligi
17th · 11 pts · 14 played
LLWLL
3–0Full time
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 8 pts · 14 played
DLWDL
Our take
Genclerbirligi were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Genclerbirligi had 8.8 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 6.8 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days8.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Genclerbirligi41%
Draw28%
Fatih Karagümrük31%
Genclerbirligi42%
Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük31%
Genclerbirligi41%
Draw28%
Fatih Karagümrük31%
Genclerbirligi34%
Draw28%
Fatih Karagümrük38%
Genclerbirligi42%
Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük31%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ankara)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 11
Team strength
GenclerbirligiFatih Karagümrük
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
13
AttackIn forecast
13
16
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenclerbirligiFatih Karagümrük
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.93
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
71%
Scored inContext
50%
7%
Clean sheetsContext
7%
9.71
ShotsContext
10.57
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.17
32%
On target shareContext
26%
5.36
Shots in the boxContext
5.36
55%
Box shareContext
52%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.67
16.07
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.29
4.91
BlocksContext
3.77
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.46
67%
Save rateContext
67%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
299
PassesContext
351
235
Accurate passesContext
271
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.63
12.21
FoulsContext
14.07
13.43
Fouls sufferedContext
14.29
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
70%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.20
ShotsContext
10.30
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
34%
On target shareContext
25%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
53%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.13
OffsidesContext
3.13
17.00
Shots allowedContext
15.10
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.60
4.89
BlocksContext
3.80
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.89
72%
Save rateContext
68%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
299
PassesContext
331
233
Accurate passesContext
248
78%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.64
12.90
FoulsContext
15.10
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genclerbirligi
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km915 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genclerbirligi |
Fatih Karagümrük |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 28 Nov | 6.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 915 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
2T. da Silva
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
13Pedro Pereira
35O. Ülgün
15A. Dele-Bashiru
70F. Tongya
22S. Koïta
11G. Gürpüz
29M. Niang
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
47Ricardo Esgaio
3E. Roco
32Muhammed Kadioglu
6A. Çankaya
11D. Johnson
5M. Kranevitter
14Marius Tresor Doh
8B. Özcan
19D. Fofana
70Serginho
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genclerbirligi
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fatih Karagümrük
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genclerbirligi+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fatih Karagümrük-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Genclerbirligi · Home
1.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.50
Fatih Karagümrük · Away
0.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Genclerbirligi | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | L 2–3 A | L 0–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Konyaspor | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Besiktas | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Rizespor | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Antalyaspor | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Samsunspor | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 10 of 36 · 0.83 per game | 8 of 36 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Genclerbirligi | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.93 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.79 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 43% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 7% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 50% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Genclerbirligi | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genclerbirligi | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.15 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.64 | |
| Match total | 9.15 | 9.35 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 8/13 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 6/13 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 4.21 | 4.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 9/14 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 8/14 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Genclerbirligi | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 8.80 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.80 | 4.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.64league 4.47
Red cards0.09league 0.26
Cards 5+64%league 48%
Fouls25.3league 26.1
Penalties0.36league 0.28
Home wins45%league 35%
Genclerbirligi1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L9 Aug 25A · Samsunspor1–20
Fatih Karagümrük1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Sep 25H · Istanbul Basaksehir0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genclerbirligi14 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük14 games · scored 13 · conceded 26
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
9
61-75
6
4
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 11 · conceded 19
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
7
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
