Genclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fenerbahce were clear favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 11). Fenerbahce usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Genclerbirligi had 7.9 days of rest, Fenerbahce 7.9 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days7.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Genclerbirligi12%
Draw19%
Fenerbahce69%
Genclerbirligi12%
Draw19%
Fenerbahce68%
Genclerbirligi12%
Draw19%
Fenerbahce69%
Genclerbirligi8%
Draw16%
Fenerbahce76%
Genclerbirligi12%
Draw19%
Fenerbahce68%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ankara)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCagdas Altay
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 4
Team strength
Genclerbirligi
Fenerbahce
11
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
13
AttackIn forecast
75
16
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenclerbirligiFenerbahce
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
0.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.78
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.41
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
67%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
8.67
ShotsContext
16.50
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
23%
On target shareContext
24%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
63%
Box shareContext
57%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
9.00
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
—
BlocksContext
3.50
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
55%
Save rateContext
100%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
288
PassesContext
392
223
Accurate passesContext
328
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.56
Team ratingContext
7.13
11.00
FoulsContext
12.00
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
19.50
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.60
xGVia Att/Def
2.37
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
67%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.67
ShotsContext
15.20
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
23%
On target shareContext
34%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
63%
Box shareContext
57%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.75
14.00
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
—
BlocksContext
4.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
55%
Save rateContext
71%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
288
PassesContext
408
223
Accurate passesContext
340
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.56
Team ratingContext
7.09
11.00
FoulsContext
13.90
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genclerbirligi
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,013 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fenerbahce
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genclerbirligi |
Fenerbahce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 7.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,013 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
1G. Akkan(G)
23M. Hanousek
6D. Goutas
2T. da Silva
13Pedro Pereira
81M. Kyabou
4Žan Žužek
10M. Mimaroğlu
11G. Gürpüz
20A. Traoré
22S. Koïta
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
40D. Livaković(G)
33A. Brown
4Ç. Söyüncü
37M. Škriniar
70O. Aydın
7Fred
11E. Álvarez
45D. Nene
94Talisca
17İ. Kahveci
19Y. En-Nesyri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genclerbirligi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fenerbahce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genclerbirligi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fenerbahce+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genclerbirligi · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Fenerbahce · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Genclerbirligi | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.00 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
| Genclerbirligi | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.00 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genclerbirligi | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.00 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 8.00 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Genclerbirligi | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.67 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.20 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cagdas Altay Türkiye · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.75league 4.08
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+25%league 42%
Fouls22.3league 25.7
Penalties0.25league 0.35
Home wins50%league 42%
GenclerbirligiNo previous matches with this referee.
FenerbahceNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genclerbirligi3 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Fenerbahce2 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Genclerbirligi3 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 19 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
8
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
