Genclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Genclerbirligi
15th · 25 pts · 29 played
DLLLL
1–2Full time
Galatasaray
1st · 68 pts · 29 played
WWLWD
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genclerbirligi. Genclerbirligi had 7.2 days of rest, Galatasaray 6 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days7.2 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 3
Genclerbirligi13%
Draw20%
Galatasaray67%
Genclerbirligi10%
Draw18%
Galatasaray72%
Genclerbirligi13%
Draw19%
Galatasaray68%
Genclerbirligi9%
Draw17%
Galatasaray74%
Genclerbirligi14%
Draw20%
Galatasaray66%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ankara)
No weather data yet
RefereeBatuhan Kolak
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 15
Team strength
GenclerbirligiGalatasaray
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
13
AttackIn forecast
57
16
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenclerbirligiGalatasaray
0.97
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.31
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.76
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
59%
Scored inContext
90%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
10.10
ShotsContext
15.76
3.54
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.48
31%
On target shareContext
35%
5.93
Shots in the boxContext
11.32
56%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
2.04
OffsidesContext
2.20
14.79
Shots allowedContext
10.03
4.66
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.54
4.38
BlocksContext
2.73
3.24
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
70%
Save rateContext
79%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
309
PassesContext
500
243
Accurate passesContext
437
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.73
Team ratingContext
7.06
12.38
FoulsContext
12.21
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.21
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.03
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
30%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.60
ShotsContext
12.00
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
27%
On target shareContext
36%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
51%
Box shareContext
68%
5%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
3.50
14.50
Shots allowedContext
15.90
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
4.50
BlocksContext
3.20
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
77%
Save rateContext
78%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
315
PassesContext
456
248
Accurate passesContext
381
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.60
FoulsContext
11.90
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genclerbirligi
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Galatasaray
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel352 km2,464 km in 14d
Schedule load26%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genclerbirligi |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 26 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 704 km | 2,464 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
23M. Hanousek
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
2T. da Silva
15A. Dele-Bashiru
70F. Tongya
22S. Koïta
35O. Ülgün
11G. Gürpüz
29M. Niang
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara
34L. Torreira
53B. Yılmaz
11Y. Akgün
10L. Sané
9M. Icardi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genclerbirligi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genclerbirligi+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Galatasaray-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Genclerbirligi · Home
1.36points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-5
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.43
Galatasaray · Away
2.21points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 10-1-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Genclerbirligi | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Konyaspor | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Kayserispor | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | W 4–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Eyüpspor | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | W 5–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | W 3–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 4–1 A |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 3–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | W 4–3 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–0 H | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 25 of 84 · 0.89 per game | 65 of 84 · 2.32 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Genclerbirligi wins0 draws1 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game2.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 22 Nov 2025Galatasaray3–2Genclerbirligi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genclerbirligi | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.97 | 2.31 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 0.76 | |
| Match goals | 2.41 | 3.07 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 66% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 66% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 55% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 10% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Genclerbirligi | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genclerbirligi | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 5.41 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.32 | 3.48 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 8.89 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 19/28 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 14/28 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 11/28 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.28 | 1.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.03 | 2.24 | |
| Match total | 4.31 | 4.17 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 16/29 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 13/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Genclerbirligi | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.56 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.50 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Batuhan Kolak 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.67league 4.45
Red cards0.20league 0.22
Cards 5+40%league 45%
Fouls26.3league 26.2
Penalties0.47league 0.28
Home wins40%league 39%
Genclerbirligi1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L4 Apr 26H · Goztepe0–23
Galatasaray3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.0.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Mar 26H · Istanbul Basaksehir3–00
- W13 Sep 25A · Eyüpspor2–01
- W24 May 25A · Goztepe2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genclerbirligi29 games · scored 28 · conceded 42
4
3
0-15
5
4
16-30
4
12
31-45
5
7
46-60
4
8
61-75
6
8
76-90
Galatasaray29 games · scored 67 · conceded 22
10
3
0-15
11
2
16-30
7
1
31-45
11
4
46-60
14
7
61-75
14
5
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 5 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
