Genclerbirligi
Attack−17%
Defense risk+41%
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 15). Absences weigh more on Genclerbirligi. Genclerbirligi were without Pedro Pereira and A. Traoré. Galatasaray were without L. Torreira. Genclerbirligi had 7.1 days of rest, Galatasaray 3.8 and had to travel 352 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel352 kmRest days7.1 · 3.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Genclerbirligi14%
Draw18%
Galatasaray68%
Genclerbirligi16%
Draw22%
Galatasaray63%
Genclerbirligi15%
Draw19%
Galatasaray67%
Genclerbirligi10%
Draw15%
Galatasaray75%
Genclerbirligi15%
Draw19%
Galatasaray67%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–2
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ankara)
11°CLight rain
- Precipitation 2.2 mm
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 89%
Referee · TürkiyeResat Onur Coskunses
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 7
Team strength
Genclerbirligi
Galatasaray
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
13
AttackIn forecast
57
16
DefenceIn forecast
55
8
Form indexContext
43
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack+32%
Defense risk−23%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
GenclerbirligiGalatasaray
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.29
2.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
2.38
1.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
71%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.00
ShotsContext
22.86
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.86
30%
On target shareContext
34%
6.29
Shots in the boxContext
15.71
55%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.80
17.29
Shots allowedContext
9.71
7.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.17
BlocksContext
3.67
5.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
73%
Save rateContext
71%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
341
PassesContext
468
277
Accurate passesContext
405
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.02
11.71
FoulsContext
12.00
11.57
Fouls sufferedContext
11.71
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.29
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
18.70
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
35%
On target shareContext
35%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.80
58%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.14
14.70
Shots allowedContext
10.20
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.44
BlocksContext
3.50
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
73%
Save rateContext
58%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
360
PassesContext
475
293
Accurate passesContext
413
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.20
FoulsContext
11.10
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genclerbirligi
DLLLD
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 8 · 2 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -3.8 vs expected
Galatasaray
LWLWL
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 43 · 6 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genclerbirligi |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
70İ. Eğribayat(G)
2T. da Silva
6D. Goutas
90M. Baltacı
88F. Üzüm
42Ousmane Diabate
7Tiago Gouveia
10F. Tongya
48S. Uçan
83R. Luis
9Pedro Mendes
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
17E. Elmalı
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara
99M. Lemina
53B. Yılmaz
83A. Batrakov
10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genclerbirligi
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.08 goals
Attack line −26.5% · Defence line −16.9% of weighted minutes
- DEF Pedro Pereira Starter 6.59 Def −12.4%
- ATT A. Traoré Starter 6.75 Att −18.4%
- MID O. Ülgün Starter 6.75 Att −7.8% Def −4.4%
- MID C. Niasse Depth 6.70 Att −0.2% Def −0.1%
Galatasaray
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −7.1% · Defence line −10.3% of weighted minutes
- MID L. Torreira Starter 6.93 Att −7.1% Def −7.6%
- DEF W. Singo Rotation 6.78 Def −2.7%
Total impact vs full squads
- Genclerbirligi-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Galatasaray+1.2 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Genclerbirligi · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Galatasaray · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Genclerbirligi | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–4 A | W 3–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–5 A | L 0–4 A |
| Erzurumspor FK | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Goztepe | W 1–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game | 12 of 15 · 2.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Genclerbirligi wins0 draws2 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 18 Apr 2026Genclerbirligi1–2Galatasaray
- 22 Nov 2025Galatasaray3–2Genclerbirligi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genclerbirligi | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 3.86 | 3.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 86% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 86% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Genclerbirligi | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.70 | 3.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genclerbirligi | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 7.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.14 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 10.14 | 9.43 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.29 | 4.29 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Genclerbirligi | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.70 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.80 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Resat Onur Coskunses Türkiye · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.14league 3.91
Red cards0.29league 0.18
Cards 5+43%league 42%
Fouls27.1league 24.4
Penalties0.00league 0.35
Home wins57%league 46%
Genclerbirligi2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D9 Mar 26A · Alanyaspor0–02
- L25 Jan 26A · Antalyaspor1–23
Galatasaray1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L2 May 26A · Samsunspor1–41
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genclerbirligi7 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Galatasaray7 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
6
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 18 · conceded 19
2
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
6
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
