Genclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Goztepe were slight favourites.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Goztepe. Genclerbirligi had 15.8 days of rest, Goztepe 20.8 and had to travel 520 km.
Away travel520 kmRest days15.8 · 20.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Genclerbirligi25%
Draw29%
Goztepe45%
Genclerbirligi29%
Draw27%
Goztepe45%
Genclerbirligi25%
Draw29%
Goztepe45%
Genclerbirligi20%
Draw28%
Goztepe52%
Genclerbirligi25%
Draw28%
Goztepe46%
Over 2.5 39%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ankara)
No weather data yet
RefereeBatuhan Kolak
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 14
Team strength
Genclerbirligi
Goztepe
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
13
AttackIn forecast
39
16
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenclerbirligiGoztepe
1.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.15
1.37
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.77
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
63%
Scored inContext
69%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
54%
10.04
ShotsContext
13.31
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
33%
On target shareContext
33%
5.92
Shots in the boxContext
8.58
56%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.95
14.81
Shots allowedContext
11.62
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.63
4.36
BlocksContext
3.68
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
71%
Save rateContext
78%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
303
PassesContext
249
237
Accurate passesContext
172
78%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.26
FoulsContext
16.69
12.81
Fouls sufferedContext
9.23
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
50%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.30
ShotsContext
13.30
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
30%
On target shareContext
32%
5.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
51%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.50
Shots allowedContext
10.80
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
4.44
BlocksContext
3.70
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
76%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
310
PassesContext
256
241
Accurate passesContext
175
78%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.50
FoulsContext
16.50
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genclerbirligi
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Goztepe
Rest20.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel520 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genclerbirligi |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Mar | 20.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 520 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
2T. da Silva
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
13Pedro Pereira
15A. Dele-Bashiru
7H. Onyekuru
35O. Ülgün
22S. Koïta
70F. Tongya
29M. Niang
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
3Allan
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
2A. Kurtulan
8A. Antunes
39Janderson
19Jeh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genclerbirligi
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genclerbirligi+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Goztepe+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Genclerbirligi · Home
1.46points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-4
- Scored
- 1.46
- Conceded
- 1.38
Goztepe · Away
1.46points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-4
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Genclerbirligi | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | L 0–4 AW 3–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Kayserispor | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | W 4–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Galatasaray | L 2–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 25 of 78 · 0.96 per game | 40 of 75 · 1.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Genclerbirligi wins0 draws1 Goztepe wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 1 Nov 2025Goztepe1–0Genclerbirligi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genclerbirligi | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.04 | 1.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.37 | 0.77 | |
| Match goals | 2.41 | 1.92 | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 38% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 38% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 54% | |
| Failed to score | 37% | 31% | |
| Games | 27 | 26 |
| Genclerbirligi | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.20 | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genclerbirligi | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.12 | 4.62 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.42 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 9.54 | 9.50 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 18/26 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 13/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 11/26 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.46 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.96 | 2.23 | |
| Match total | 4.26 | 4.69 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 15/27 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 12/27 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Genclerbirligi | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.30 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.60 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.60 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Batuhan Kolak 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 4.41
Red cards0.21league 0.21
Cards 5+36%league 44%
Fouls26.1league 26.0
Penalties0.36league 0.27
Home wins43%league 39%
GenclerbirligiNo previous matches with this referee.
Goztepe4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D28 Feb 26H · Eyüpspor0–03
- W22 Aug 25A · Fatih Karagümrük2–02
- L24 May 25H · Galatasaray0–23
- W4 May 25A · Adana Demirspor2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genclerbirligi27 games · scored 28 · conceded 37
4
2
0-15
5
4
16-30
4
9
31-45
5
7
46-60
4
7
61-75
6
8
76-90
Goztepe26 games · scored 30 · conceded 20
3
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
7
4
46-60
4
4
61-75
6
4
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
