Genclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Genclerbirligi
16th · 28 pts · 32 played
LLLWL
3–2Full time
Kasimpasa
13th · 32 pts · 32 played
WDWLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Kasimpasa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (18 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genclerbirligi. Genclerbirligi had 6 days of rest, Kasimpasa 6 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
Genclerbirligi39%
Draw29%
Kasimpasa33%
Genclerbirligi37%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa36%
Genclerbirligi38%
Draw29%
Kasimpasa33%
Genclerbirligi32%
Draw29%
Kasimpasa39%
Genclerbirligi39%
Draw29%
Kasimpasa33%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ankara)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 21
Team strength
GenclerbirligiKasimpasa
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
13
AttackIn forecast
21
16
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenclerbirligiKasimpasa
0.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.94
1.41
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
59%
Scored inContext
66%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.16
ShotsContext
9.25
3.48
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.83
31%
On target shareContext
28%
6.03
Shots in the boxContext
5.39
56%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.90
14.09
Shots allowedContext
11.25
4.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.94
4.04
BlocksContext
3.17
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
69%
Save rateContext
68%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
315
PassesContext
334
248
Accurate passesContext
259
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.71
12.19
FoulsContext
15.06
13.09
Fouls sufferedContext
13.16
2.06
Yellow cardsContext
2.34
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
0.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
20%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.00
ShotsContext
7.70
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
24%
On target shareContext
33%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
3.80
50%
Box shareContext
50%
2%
ConversionContext
14%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.10
Shots allowedContext
11.10
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.40
BlocksContext
3.00
4.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
81%
Save rateContext
65%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
353
PassesContext
331
283
Accurate passesContext
250
80%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.67
11.20
FoulsContext
14.50
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genclerbirligi
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kasimpasa
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genclerbirligi |
Kasimpasa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 May | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 704 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
77A. Dursun
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
13Pedro Pereira
35O. Ülgün
15A. Dele-Bashiru
10M. Mimaroğlu
70F. Tongya
20A. Traoré
22S. Koïta
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
4Adem Arous
50Rodrigo Becão
22K. Çörekçi
26K. Demirbay
16A. Baldursson
12A. Ben Ouanes
34F. Diabaté
71İ. Kahveci
19A. Benedyczak
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genclerbirligi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Kasimpasa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genclerbirligi+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Kasimpasa-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Genclerbirligi · Home
1.38points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-6
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.38
Kasimpasa · Away
0.88points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Genclerbirligi | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 0–1 AW 3–0 H | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–2 HL 2–3 A | L 0–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | L 0–4 AL 1–3 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Konyaspor | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Kayserispor | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Eyüpspor | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | L 0–3 HW 2–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 AL 2–3 H |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | W 4–3 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 27 of 93 · 0.87 per game | 31 of 93 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Genclerbirligi wins1 draws0 Kasimpasa wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 12 Dec 2025Kasimpasa0–0Genclerbirligi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genclerbirligi | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.94 | 0.94 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.41 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.34 | 2.38 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 44% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 53% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 34% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Genclerbirligi | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.20 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.40 | 2.60 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 80% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genclerbirligi | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.97 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.03 | 4.37 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.47 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 19/31 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 14/31 | 33% 10/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 11/31 | 17% 5/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.34 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 4.90 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 18/32 | 75% 24/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 13/32 | 47% 15/32 | |
| Genclerbirligi | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 2.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 6.90 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.70 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 4.43
Red cards0.19league 0.22
Cards 5+33%league 45%
Fouls25.9league 26.0
Penalties0.33league 0.28
Home wins29%league 41%
GenclerbirligiNo previous matches with this referee.
Kasimpasa2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L20 Oct 25A · Eyüpspor0–21
- L18 Aug 25H · Trabzonspor0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genclerbirligi32 games · scored 30 · conceded 45
4
4
0-15
5
5
16-30
5
13
31-45
5
7
46-60
5
8
61-75
6
8
76-90
Kasimpasa32 games · scored 30 · conceded 46
2
8
0-15
3
10
16-30
7
6
31-45
5
5
46-60
8
2
61-75
5
15
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 2 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
5
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
