Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 23). Genk usually keep the ball (62% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Genk had 3.1 days of rest, Charleroi 3.2 and had to travel 97 km.
Away travel97 kmRest days3.1 · 3.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Genk56%
Draw24%
Charleroi20%
Genk55%
Draw24%
Charleroi21%
Genk56%
Draw24%
Charleroi20%
Genk49%
Draw26%
Charleroi26%
Genk55%
Draw24%
Charleroi21%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 11
Team strength
Genk
Charleroi
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
46
AttackIn forecast
43
50
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkCharleroi
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
100%
Scored inContext
83%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.83
ShotsContext
10.33
5.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
39%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.83
63%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.17
11.00
Shots allowedContext
9.67
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
3.00
BlocksContext
2.50
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
65%
Save rateContext
72%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
540
PassesContext
384
477
Accurate passesContext
307
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.90
9.67
FoulsContext
14.00
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.83
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
100%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.40
ShotsContext
10.00
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
34%
On target shareContext
39%
9.88
Shots in the boxContext
6.38
64%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.38
10.60
Shots allowedContext
10.25
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
2.50
BlocksContext
2.63
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
71%
Save rateContext
66%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
521
PassesContext
392
451
Accurate passesContext
302
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.83
9.70
FoulsContext
13.63
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.75
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km164 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Charleroi
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel97 km247 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 3.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 97 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 164 km | 247 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.7 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
21I. Bangoura
32N. Adedeji-Sternberg
7J. Steuckers
10J. Ito
9H. Oh
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
23Jules Gaudin
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
27L. Blum
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
8J. Romsaas
17A. Bernier
21A. Scheidler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Charleroi · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Genk | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Genk wins1 draws0 Charleroi wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 50%
- 23 Feb 2024Charleroi0–1Genk
- 20 Aug 2023Genk0–0Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 83% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Genk | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 83% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 8.00 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 3.84 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Genk | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.13 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 8.13 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.20 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.18league 3.72
Red cards0.09league 0.25
Cards 5+45%league 40%
Fouls25.7league 23.0
Penalties0.27league 0.40
Home wins36%league 45%
Genk1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W10 Dec 23A · AS Eupen3–12
Charleroi3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D17 Aug 25H · Antwerp1–13
- L23 Dec 23A · St. Truiden0–10
- W23 Sep 23H · Kortrijk1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk6 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Charleroi6 games · scored 10 · conceded 8
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
