Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Genk. Genk had 6.9 days of rest, Gent 7.1 and had to travel 125 km.
Away travel125 kmRest days6.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Genk48%
Draw25%
Gent27%
Genk46%
Draw25%
Gent29%
Genk48%
Draw25%
Gent27%
Genk40%
Draw26%
Gent34%
Genk48%
Draw25%
Gent28%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Genk
Gent
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
46
AttackIn forecast
46
50
DefenceIn forecast
61
47
Form indexContext
91
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkGent
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
2.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.55
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.76
80%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
12.40
ShotsContext
12.00
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
42%
On target shareContext
38%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
72%
Box shareContext
60%
19%
ConversionContext
17%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.20
Shots allowedContext
8.20
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.40
4.50
BlocksContext
2.00
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
61%
Save rateContext
83%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
473
PassesContext
471
406
Accurate passesContext
397
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.02
Team ratingContext
7.06
12.20
FoulsContext
10.20
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
60%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.70
ShotsContext
11.80
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
36%
On target shareContext
26%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
71%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.89
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.10
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.33
BlocksContext
2.80
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
75%
Save rateContext
79%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
464
PassesContext
450
397
Accurate passesContext
381
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.99
12.00
FoulsContext
9.70
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
LWDWD
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km164 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 47 · 8 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
Gent
WWWWW
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel125 km77 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 91 · 15 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +7.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 125 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 164 km | 77 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
28L. Brughmans(G)
18J. Kayembe
44J. Kongolo
6M. Smets
20K. Amaro
8B. Heynen
21I. Bangoura
30A. Yokoyama
11Jeppe Erenbjerg
10J. Ito
17R. Durosinmi
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
16C. Burgess
5M. Ngom
20Tiago Araújo
17M. Delorge-Knieper
27T. De Vlieger
7M. Balikwisha
11M. Sonko
14K. Wilson
47J. Y. Vergara Ortega
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Gent · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Genk wins3 draws0 Gent wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 1 Mar 2026Genk3–0Gent
- 9 Nov 2025Gent1–1Genk
- 3 Dec 2023Genk2–2Gent
- 8 Oct 2023Gent1–1Genk
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.40 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Genk | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.10 | 2.60 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.75 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.80 | 3.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Genk | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.78 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.10 | 3.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Genk5 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Gent5 games · scored 10 · conceded 2
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
