Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Genk
10th · 23 pts · 17 played
WDLWL
First leg1–0
1–1Full time
KVC Westerlo
11th · 20 pts · 17 played
LLDDW
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 25). Genk had 3 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 7.1 and had to travel 43 km.
Away travel43 kmRest days3 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Genk54%
Draw24%
KVC Westerlo22%
Genk53%
Draw25%
KVC Westerlo22%
Genk54%
Draw24%
KVC Westerlo22%
Genk46%
Draw26%
KVC Westerlo27%
Genk53%
Draw25%
KVC Westerlo22%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichiel Allaerts
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 10
Team strength
GenkKVC Westerlo
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
46
AttackIn forecast
42
50
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkKVC Westerlo
1.24
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.47
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.53
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
82%
Scored inContext
59%
6%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
15.94
ShotsContext
15.47
5.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.94
34%
On target shareContext
30%
9.56
Shots in the boxContext
10.94
58%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.41
Shots allowedContext
11.53
4.35
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.24
3.27
BlocksContext
3.79
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
69%
Save rateContext
67%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
564
PassesContext
376
493
Accurate passesContext
302
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.12
FoulsContext
11.35
13.59
Fouls sufferedContext
11.82
1.35
Yellow cardsContext
1.59
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
60%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.60
ShotsContext
15.20
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
41%
On target shareContext
28%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
11.20
54%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.33
12.60
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.89
BlocksContext
3.75
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
69%
Save rateContext
72%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
523
PassesContext
377
449
Accurate passesContext
306
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.80
FoulsContext
10.80
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,393 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
KVC Westerlo
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel43 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
KVC Westerlo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 43 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,393 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
1H. Van Crombrugge(G)
19Y. Medina
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
21I. Bangoura
14Y. Sor
38D. Heymans
7J. Steuckers
29Robin Mirisola
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
25T. Rommens
4A. Lapage
40E. Bayram
22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort
34D. Haspolat
18G. Yow
13I. Sakamoto
7A. Sayyadmanesh
90Nacho Ferri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
1.38points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
KVC Westerlo · Away
0.75points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Genk | KVC Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Gent | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 2–2 A | L 1–4 A |
| Dender | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| St. Truiden | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Charleroi | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Anderlecht | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 HL 2–5 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 3–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 A | D 5–5 A |
| Points | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Genk wins2 draws0 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 2 Nov 2025KVC Westerlo0–1Genk
- 17 Mar 2024KVC Westerlo1–1Genk
- 1 Oct 2023Genk3–3KVC Westerlo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.24 | 1.47 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 1.53 | |
| Match goals | 2.59 | 3.00 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 41% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 76% | 35% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 6% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 41% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Genk | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.70 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.76 | 5.12 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.53 | 4.65 | |
| Match total | 9.29 | 9.77 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 9/17 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 7/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 5/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.41 | 1.59 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.82 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.23 | 3.59 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 11/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 8/17 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Genk | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.50 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.80 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michiel Allaerts 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.80
Red cards0.10league 0.18
Cards 5+20%league 41%
Fouls21.7league 22.9
Penalties0.10league 0.30
Home wins30%league 41%
Genk2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Nov 25A · KVC Westerlo1–01
- W17 Feb 24H · RWDM3–11
KVC Westerlo3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L2 Nov 25H · Genk0–10
- L9 Aug 25H · KV Mechelen0–11
- D21 Oct 23A · RWDM1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk17 games · scored 21 · conceded 23
4
7
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
5
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
KVC Westerlo17 games · scored 25 · conceded 26
4
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
9
31-45
6
3
46-60
6
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
