Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genk were clear favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Genk. Genk had 6.2 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 7 and had to travel 43 km.
Away travel43 kmRest days6.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Genk62%
Draw21%
KVC Westerlo17%
Genk56%
Draw23%
KVC Westerlo21%
Genk62%
Draw21%
KVC Westerlo17%
Genk54%
Draw23%
KVC Westerlo23%
Genk61%
Draw21%
KVC Westerlo17%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 56
Team strength
Genk
KVC Westerlo
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
46
AttackIn forecast
42
50
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkKVC Westerlo
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.92
-0.71
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
60%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.60
ShotsContext
13.30
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
32%
On target shareContext
35%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
70%
Box shareContext
65%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
3.33
OffsidesContext
1.38
10.80
Shots allowedContext
13.20
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.50
BlocksContext
3.40
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
82%
Save rateContext
59%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
462
PassesContext
420
395
Accurate passesContext
347
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.70
12.00
FoulsContext
9.90
9.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
L
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km291 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 37 · 0 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected
- L9 AugA · Zulte Waregem1–21.5 xPts
KVC Westerlo
L
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel43 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 0 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
- L8 AugH · Union St. Gilloise1–50.9 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
KVC Westerlo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 9 Aug | 7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 8 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 43 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 291 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
28L. Brughmans(G)
18J. Kayembe
44J. Kongolo
6M. Smets
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
21I. Bangoura
30A. Yokoyama
11Jeppe Erenbjerg
10J. Ito
17R. Durosinmi
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
28Dylan Ourega
6R. Münz
5Seiji Kimura
23L. Mbamba-Muanda
7Shunsuke Saito
45I. Fofana
14C. Sandra
20C. Congreve
13I. Sakamoto
9N. Bassette
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
No home games yet this season.
KVC Westerlo · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Genk wins3 draws0 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game1.83 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 10 May 2026Genk3–0KVC Westerlo
- 18 Apr 2026KVC Westerlo1–2Genk
- 14 Dec 2025Genk1–1KVC Westerlo
- 2 Nov 2025KVC Westerlo0–1Genk
- 17 Mar 2024KVC Westerlo1–1Genk
- 1 Oct 2023Genk3–3KVC Westerlo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 6.00 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Genk | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.20 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.00 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.00 | 2.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Genk | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.70 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.30 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.20 | 2.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 56 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.95league 2.75
Red cards0.32league 0.17
Cards 5+64%league 25%
Fouls22.9league 21.2
Penalties0.21league 0.25
Home wins45%league 50%
Genk7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L2 May 26A · Charleroi0–20
- L7 Mar 26A · Union St. Gilloise1–22
- L26 Dec 25H · Club Brugge KV3–53
- W28 Sep 25A · St. Truiden2–12
- D3 Aug 25H · Antwerp1–10
KVC Westerlo3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W7 Dec 25H · Anderlecht4–03
- D24 Sep 25A · Club Brugge KV5–53
- D17 Mar 24H · Genk1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk1 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
KVC Westerlo1 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 13 · conceded 22
3
2
0-15
4
16-30
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
6
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
