Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genk were clear favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Genk. Genk had 6 days of rest, SK Beveren 6.2 and had to travel 91 km.
Away travel91 kmRest days6 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Genk65%
Draw19%
SK Beveren15%
Genk55%
Draw24%
SK Beveren21%
Genk65%
Draw19%
SK Beveren15%
Genk58%
Draw22%
SK Beveren21%
Genk65%
Draw19%
SK Beveren16%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 26
Team strength
Genk
SK Beveren
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
46
AttackIn forecast
18
50
DefenceIn forecast
20
41
Form indexContext
35
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSK Beveren
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkSK Beveren
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
2.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.03
xGVia Att/Def
0.79
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.03
+0.64
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
100%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.33
ShotsContext
10.33
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
40%
On target shareContext
32%
11.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
77%
Box shareContext
71%
19%
ConversionContext
7%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.33
12.67
Shots allowedContext
17.33
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.67
3.33
BlocksContext
5.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.33
46%
Save rateContext
80%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
481
PassesContext
499
407
Accurate passesContext
404
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.95
15.33
FoulsContext
9.67
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.92
xGVia Att/Def
0.79
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.03
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
70%
Scored inContext
67%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
18.30
ShotsContext
10.33
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
33%
On target shareContext
32%
12.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
72%
Box shareContext
71%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.60
Shots allowedContext
17.33
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.67
3.60
BlocksContext
5.00
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.33
73%
Save rateContext
80%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
472
PassesContext
499
402
Accurate passesContext
404
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.95
12.60
FoulsContext
9.67
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
LWD
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km155 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 4 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
SK Beveren |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 22 Aug | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 91 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 155 km | 136 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
28L. Brughmans(G)
18J. Kayembe
44J. Kongolo
6M. Smets
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
21I. Bangoura
30A. Yokoyama
11Jeppe Erenbjerg
10J. Ito
17R. Durosinmi
SK Beveren
Confirmed XI
1J. Schenk(G)
4C. Janssens
31B. Godeau
35Y. Gomis
21L. Jans
8F. Slegers
18S. Dewaele
5C. Lokesa
22C. Brüls
34K. Abrahams
92L. Mertens
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
SK Beveren
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SK Beveren+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
SK Beveren · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Genk | SK Beveren |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | D 4–4 A | L 1–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | SK Beveren | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.33 | 2.67 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Genk | SK Beveren | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.60 | 2.67 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 67% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 10 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | SK Beveren | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.33 | 10.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 3.33 | 2.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Genk | SK Beveren | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.90 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.33 | 10.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.33 | 2.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 1/3 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.81league 2.25
Red cards0.15league 0.13
Cards 5+23%league 17%
Fouls22.0league 21.5
Penalties0.23league 0.29
Home wins42%league 54%
Genk3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 May 26A · OH Leuven2–02
- W18 Apr 26A · KVC Westerlo2–12
- D26 Oct 25H · RAAL La Louvière1–11
SK BeverenNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk3 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
SK Beveren3 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
SK Beveren3 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
