Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 37). Como usually keep the ball (62% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Genoa had 6.9 days of rest, Como 8.9 and had to travel 156 km.
Away travel156 kmRest days6.9 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Genoa29%
Draw27%
Como44%
Genoa30%
Draw27%
Como43%
Genoa29%
Draw27%
Como44%
Genoa23%
Draw26%
Como51%
Genoa30%
Draw26%
Como43%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 49
Team strength
Genoa
Como
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
23
AttackIn forecast
72
44
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaComo
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.73
1.39
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.85
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
67%
Scored inContext
76%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
11.45
ShotsContext
14.21
3.97
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
35%
On target shareContext
35%
7.19
Shots in the boxContext
9.13
61%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.57
12.70
Shots allowedContext
9.00
4.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.45
4.43
BlocksContext
3.00
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.62
69%
Save rateContext
72%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
375
PassesContext
523
303
Accurate passesContext
458
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.42
FoulsContext
13.06
14.76
Fouls sufferedContext
11.97
1.76
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.81
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.10
ShotsContext
14.00
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
31%
On target shareContext
34%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
60%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
11.30
Shots allowedContext
8.00
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
3.10
BlocksContext
3.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
71%
Save rateContext
64%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
414
PassesContext
516
346
Accurate passesContext
457
84%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.00
FoulsContext
12.60
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km280 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel156 km346 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Apr | 8.9Serie A 2025-2026, 17 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 156 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 280 km | 346 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
16J. Bijlow(G)
34S. Otoa
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
22J. Vásquez
77M. Ellertsson
4Alexsandro Amorim
32M. Frendrup
20S. Sabelli
9Vítinha
21J. Ekhator
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
34Diego Carlos
14Jacobo Ramón
28I. Smolčić
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
20M. Baturina
10N. Paz
38Assane Diao
11A. Douvikas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Como+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
1.29points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-7
- Scored
- 1.24
- Conceded
- 1.29
Como · Away
1.63points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-4
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 0.81
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Juventus | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Udinese | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Verona | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| AS Roma | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 AL 1–2 H | L 3–4 HL 0–4 A |
| Torino | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A | W 6–0 HW 5–1 A |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Napoli | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Lazio | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Bologna | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Cagliari | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 H | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Points | 38 of 96 · 1.19 per game | 57 of 96 · 1.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Genoa wins2 draws1 Como wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 15 Sep 2025Como1–1Genoa
- 27 Apr 2025Como1–0Genoa
- 7 Nov 2024Genoa1–1Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 1.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.39 | 0.85 | |
| Match goals | 2.61 | 2.58 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 48% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 45% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 24% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Genoa | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.55 | 4.03 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.34 | 3.07 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 7.10 | 8.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 15/29 | 23% 7/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 11/29 | 17% 5/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 5/29 | 13% 4/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.85 | 2.24 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.36 | |
| Match total | 4.52 | 4.60 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 26/33 | 70% 23/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 15/33 | 52% 17/33 | |
| Genoa | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 7.10 | 8.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.70 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.22league 3.71
Red cards0.16league 0.19
Cards 5+41%league 35%
Fouls26.1league 24.8
Penalties0.29league 0.29
Home wins41%league 40%
Genoa4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W12 Jan 26H · Cagliari3–02
- D22 Nov 25A · Cagliari3–33
- L5 Oct 25A · Napoli1–23
- L21 Dec 24H · Napoli1–22
ComoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa33 games · scored 40 · conceded 46
5
6
0-15
5
8
16-30
6
7
31-45
4
9
46-60
8
9
61-75
12
7
76-90
Como32 games · scored 55 · conceded 27
10
4
0-15
7
2
16-30
8
5
31-45
7
8
46-60
10
4
61-75
13
4
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Como10 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
