Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 28). Absences weigh more on Genoa. Genoa were without D. Sow and L. Colombo. Fiorentina were without F. Parisi. Genoa had 20 days of rest, Fiorentina 20.1 and had to travel 197 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel197 kmRest days20 · 20.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Genoa36%
Draw25%
Fiorentina39%
Genoa36%
Draw26%
Fiorentina38%
Genoa37%
Draw25%
Fiorentina38%
Genoa29%
Draw25%
Fiorentina47%
Genoa36%
Draw25%
Fiorentina39%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
23°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 60%
Referee · ItalyFabio Maresca
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 80
Team strength
Genoa
Fiorentina
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
23
AttackIn forecast
42
44
DefenceIn forecast
34
10
Form indexContext
20
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaFiorentina
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
60%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.80
ShotsContext
16.80
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
25%
On target shareContext
33%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
66%
Box shareContext
60%
5%
ConversionContext
7%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.25
15.60
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
7.00
BlocksContext
2.00
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
55%
Save rateContext
54%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
413
PassesContext
365
343
Accurate passesContext
302
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.60
Team ratingContext
6.65
9.60
FoulsContext
11.00
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
40%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.20
ShotsContext
14.20
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
24%
On target shareContext
30%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
63%
Box shareContext
61%
4%
ConversionContext
6%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
5.25
BlocksContext
2.90
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
64%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
412
PassesContext
376
338
Accurate passesContext
314
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.75
9.80
FoulsContext
11.20
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
LLLDL
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 10 · 1 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
Fiorentina
LLLWD
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel197 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 4 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -3.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Fiorentina |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20Serie A 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 20.1Serie A 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
34S. Otoa
77M. Ellertsson
25H. Traorè
32M. Frendrup
3K. Ehizibue
92S. El Shaarawy
10J. Messias
18M. Osmajić
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
21Víctor Valdepeñas
6L. Ranieri
3R. Drăgușin
20Álex Jiménez
44N. Fagioli
27C. Ndour
29D. Gnonto
42Christ Inao Oulaï
30Franco Mastantuono
23Beto
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −27.0% · Defence line −5.3% of weighted minutes
- MID D. Sow Starter 6.72 Att −8.8% Def −4.9%
- ATT L. Colombo Starter 6.58 Att −17.5%
- MID E. Meichtry Rotation 6.30 Att −0.6% Def −0.4%
Fiorentina
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −4.7% of weighted minutes
- DEF F. Parisi Starter 7.05 Def −4.7%
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fiorentina+0.9 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.33
Fiorentina · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Napoli | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Genoa wins3 draws5 Fiorentina wins
Goals per game0.75 – 2.25
Over 2.563%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 38%
- 10 May 2026Fiorentina0–0Genoa
- 9 Nov 2025Genoa2–2Fiorentina
- 2 Feb 2025Fiorentina2–1Genoa
- 31 Oct 2024Genoa0–1Fiorentina
- 15 Apr 2024Fiorentina1–1Genoa
- 19 Aug 2023Genoa1–4Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Genoa | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.60 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 8.20 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.20 | 3.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Genoa | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 8.10 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.90 | 3.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Maresca Italy · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.04league 3.26
Red cards0.23league 0.02
Cards 5+65%league 24%
Fouls25.2league 22.1
Penalties0.19league 0.10
Home wins36%league 44%
Genoa5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W25 Jan 26H · Bologna3–22
- W8 Dec 25A · Udinese2–10
- W14 Mar 25H · Lecce2–13
- L30 Apr 22A · Sampdoria0–11
- L17 Jan 22A · Fiorentina0–63
Fiorentina6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D20 Apr 26A · Lecce1–14
- L30 Mar 24H · AC Milan1–22
- W12 Nov 23H · Bologna2–12
- W1 Apr 23A · Inter1–03
- L10 Oct 22H · Lazio0–44
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa5 games · scored 3 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
76-90
Fiorentina5 games · scored 6 · conceded 12
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 4 · conceded 15
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
