Genoa vs Juventus – 31 Aug 2025

Serie A Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 31 · 17:30 Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova

Genoa 13th · 1 pts · 1 played D

0–1Full time

Juventus 5th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus were slight favourites.

Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 35). Genoa had 8 days of rest, Juventus 6.9 and had to travel 124 km.

Away travel124 kmRest days8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Genoa24%

Draw27%

Juventus49%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.54

Genoa25%

Draw26%

Juventus49%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.64

Genoa24%

Draw27%

Juventus49%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.54

Genoa19%

Draw25%

Juventus56%

Expected goals 0.90 – 1.73

Genoa25%

Draw26%

Juventus49%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.64

Over 2.5 47% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Genova)

No weather data yet

RefereeDaniele Chiffi

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 63

Team strength

Genoa

Juventus

35 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

23 AttackIn forecast 57

44 DefenceIn forecast 76

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genoa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Genoa

Juventus

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

0.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.71

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

50% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

7.60 ShotsContext 14.40

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

41% On target shareContext 36%

5.56 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

66% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 10%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.50

12.20 Shots allowedContext 10.10

5.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.10

3.56 BlocksContext 3.40

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

76% Save rateContext 81%

48% PossessionIn forecast 54%

386 PassesContext 446

305 Accurate passesContext 382

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.81 Team ratingContext 7.17

14.20 FoulsContext 12.70

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.30

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genoa

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Juventus

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel124 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genoa	Juventus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Aug	6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	124 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	15.1	13

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genoa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1N. Leali(G)

3Aarón Martín 22J. Vásquez 5L. Østigård 15B. Norton-Cuffy

32M. Frendrup 73P. Masini

8N. Stanciu 23V. Carboni 77M. Ellertsson

29L. Colombo

Juventus Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Di Gregorio(G)

6L. Kelly 3Bremer 4F. Gatti

25João Mário 19K. Thuram 5M. Locatelli 15P. Kalulu

10K. Yıldız 7Francisco Conceição

30J. David

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genoa Absences are shown before kick-off

Juventus Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Genoa+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Juventus+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Genoa · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 0.00

Juventus · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Genoa wins2 draws3 Juventus wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.33 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets17% · 67%

29 Mar 2025Juventus1–0Genoa
28 Sep 2024Genoa0–3Juventus
17 Mar 2024Juventus0–0Genoa
15 Dec 2023Genoa1–1Juventus
6 May 2022Genoa2–1Juventus
5 Dec 2021Juventus2–0Genoa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genoa	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	0.00	2.00	2.55
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	51%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Genoa	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	0.00	2.00	2.55
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	51%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genoa	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	6.00
Corners conceded	7.00	5.00
Match total	10.00	11.00	8.21
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	3.00	2.00
Match total	5.00	5.00	3.86
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Genoa	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	3.25	6.22
Corners conceded	6.63	4.67
Match total	9.88	10.89	8.21
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.40
Opponent cards	2.40	2.10
Match total	4.10	4.50	3.86
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Chiffi 63 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.87league 3.75

Red cards0.24league 0.13

Cards 5+43%league 44%

Fouls22.6league 24.7

Penalties0.17league 0.13

Home wins43%league 44%

Genoa7 with this referee

Record0-2-5 Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 1

L31 Oct 24H · Fiorentina0–14
L5 Oct 24A · Atalanta1–50
L3 Sep 23A · Torino0–15
L15 Apr 22A · AC Milan0–22
D25 Feb 22H · Inter0–01

Juventus12 with this referee

Record7-2-3 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds1

L23 Apr 25A · Parma0–13
L25 Jan 25A · Napoli1–22
D23 Nov 24A · AC Milan0–02
W5 Nov 23A · Fiorentina1–03
D1 Oct 23A · Atalanta0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.