Genoa vs Napoli – 22 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 22 · 19:45 Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova

Genoa

0–2Full time

Napoli

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Napoli were slight favourites.

Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genoa. Genoa had 90 days of rest, Napoli 90.1 and had to travel 588 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel588 kmRest days90 · 90.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Genoa26%

Draw25%

Napoli49%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.61

Genoa25%

Draw24%

Napoli50%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.64

Genoa26%

Draw25%

Napoli49%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.62

Genoa21%

Draw23%

Napoli57%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.81

Genoa27%

Draw25%

Napoli48%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.55

Over 2.5 51% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Genova)

26°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 8 km/h
Humidity 63%

Warm

Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 75

Team strength

Genoa

Napoli

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 61

23 AttackIn forecast 61

44 DefenceIn forecast 70

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genoa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Genoa

Napoli

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

0.98 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.79

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.28

40% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 60%

11.00 ShotsContext 13.90

2.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89

26% On target shareContext 32%

6.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

58% Box shareContext 63%

6% ConversionContext 11%

1.43 OffsidesContext 2.67

11.20 Shots allowedContext 8.70

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33

3.00 BlocksContext 2.43

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

72% Save rateContext 73%

53% PossessionIn forecast 63%

409 PassesContext 598

336 Accurate passesContext 540

82% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.94

9.50 FoulsContext 8.80

14.70 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genoa

Rest90 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Napoli

Rest90.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel588 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genoa	Napoli
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	90Serie A 2025-2026, 24 May	90.1Serie A 2025-2026, 24 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	588 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	8	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genoa Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1J. Bijlow(G)

22J. Vásquez 5L. Østigård 27A. Marcandalli

77M. Ellertsson 4Alexsandro Amorim 32M. Frendrup 15B. Norton-Cuffy

9Vítinha 8T. Baldanzi

29L. Colombo

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Napoli Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1A. Meret(G)

37L. Spinazzola 16Rafa Marín 13A. Rrahmani 22G. Di Lorenzo

8S. McTominay 68S. Lobotka 99F. Anguissa

27Alisson Santos 19R. Højlund 21M. Politano

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genoa Absences are shown before kick-off

Napoli Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Genoa+0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Napoli-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Genoa · Home No home games yet this season.

Napoli · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

0 Genoa wins3 draws5 Napoli wins

Goals per game1.25 – 2.13 Over 2.588% Both scored88% Clean sheets0% · 13%

7 Feb 2026Genoa2–3Napoli
5 Oct 2025Napoli2–1Genoa
11 May 2025Napoli2–2Genoa
21 Dec 2024Genoa1–2Napoli
17 Feb 2024Napoli1–1Genoa
16 Sep 2023Genoa2–2Napoli

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genoa	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.73
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	51%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	54%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Genoa	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.50
Conceded per game	1.10	0.70
Match goals	1.80	2.20	2.73
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	30%	40%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	30%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	60%
Failed to score	60%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genoa	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Genoa	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	5.22
Corners conceded	3.40	2.67
Match total	7.50	7.89	8.50
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	10% 1/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.10	0.90
Opponent cards	2.80	1.90
Match total	3.90	2.80	3.50
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 75 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.88league 3.50

Red cards0.17league 0.00

Cards 5+44%league 0%

Fouls26.2league 21.5

Penalties0.37league 0.00

Home wins33%league 50%

Genoa3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

L29 Dec 25A · AS Roma1–31
D13 Feb 22H · Salernitana1–13
L29 Aug 21H · Napoli1–22

Napoli9 with this referee

Record6-3-0 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.6 Pens for · against3 · 0

D12 Apr 26A · Parma1–10
W22 Nov 25H · Atalanta3–11
D29 Dec 23H · Monza0–04
W5 Feb 23A · Spezia3–02
D18 Apr 22H · AS Roma1–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.