Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Club Brugge KV were slight favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 38). Gent had 14.8 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 14.9 and had to travel 39 km.
Away travel39 kmRest days14.8 · 14.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Gent27%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV48%
Gent27%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV47%
Gent27%
Draw25%
Club Brugge KV48%
Gent21%
Draw24%
Club Brugge KV56%
Gent27%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV47%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 25
Team strength
Gent
Club Brugge KV
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
46
AttackIn forecast
86
61
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisClub Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentClub Brugge KV
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
100%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.75
ShotsContext
17.00
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
38%
On target shareContext
27%
10.25
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
65%
Box shareContext
71%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
3.33
OffsidesContext
1.75
9.00
Shots allowedContext
10.25
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
1.50
BlocksContext
1.75
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
65%
Save rateContext
83%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
496
PassesContext
562
413
Accurate passesContext
494
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.74
Team ratingContext
7.08
10.25
FoulsContext
10.00
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
0.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.81
70%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.30
ShotsContext
16.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
35%
On target shareContext
37%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
11.70
66%
Box shareContext
70%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
3.14
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.40
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.00
BlocksContext
3.50
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
77%
Save rateContext
76%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
493
PassesContext
537
412
Accurate passesContext
476
84%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.15
12.70
FoulsContext
7.90
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
8.20
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Club Brugge KV
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel39 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
Club Brugge KV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 16 Aug | 14.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 39 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
25Hatim Essaouabi
11M. Sonko
17M. Delorge-Knieper
15A. Ito
18M. Samoise
6O. Gandelman
37A. Kadri
7A. Kanga
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
29N. Jackers(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
58J. Spileers
64K. Sabbe
25A. Stanković
15R. Onyedika
8C. Tzolis
20H. Vanaken
9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Club Brugge KV · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Gent | Club Brugge KV |
|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Gent wins0 draws1 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 17 Dec 2023Club Brugge KV2–0Gent
- 3 Sep 2023Gent2–1Club Brugge KV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.25 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Gent | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.25 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 6.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.75 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.75 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 4.25 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Gent | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.70 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 10.30 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 2.90 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.56league 3.56
Red cards0.32league 0.20
Cards 5+32%league 32%
Fouls24.1league 23.0
Penalties0.28league 0.34
Home wins40%league 46%
Gent2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L11 Feb 24H · Cercle Brugge1–21
- D26 Nov 23H · Union St. Gilloise1–12
Club Brugge KV2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W9 Aug 25H · Cercle Brugge2–02
- W13 Aug 23A · AS Eupen5–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent4 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Club Brugge KV4 games · scored 6 · conceded 3
2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
4
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
