Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Club Brugge KV were slight favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 37). Club Brugge KV usually keep the ball (62% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Gent had 13.9 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 6.8 and had to travel 39 km.
Away travel39 kmRest days13.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Gent22%
Draw23%
Club Brugge KV55%
Gent23%
Draw24%
Club Brugge KV54%
Gent22%
Draw23%
Club Brugge KV55%
Gent17%
Draw20%
Club Brugge KV63%
Gent23%
Draw24%
Club Brugge KV53%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 64
Team strength
Gent
Club Brugge KV
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
75
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
46
AttackIn forecast
86
61
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
74
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisClub Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentClub Brugge KV
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
2.75
0.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.83
+0.83
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
11.50
ShotsContext
21.00
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
48%
On target shareContext
33%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
15.67
58%
Box shareContext
73%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.00
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
2.00
BlocksContext
5.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
86%
Save rateContext
88%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
72%
551
PassesContext
702
471
Accurate passesContext
630
86%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
7.14
Team ratingContext
7.54
8.00
FoulsContext
5.67
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
0.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
2.67
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
-0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
40%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
11.40
ShotsContext
20.30
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.80
21%
On target shareContext
38%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
15.00
63%
Box shareContext
73%
5%
ConversionContext
16%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.63
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.20
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.90
3.90
BlocksContext
5.10
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
82%
Save rateContext
86%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
433
PassesContext
547
361
Accurate passesContext
473
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.40
8.50
FoulsContext
7.80
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
0.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
WW
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km142 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 6 pts vs 3.7 for an average club · +2.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
Club Brugge KV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 16 Aug | 6.8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 39 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 142 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.3 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
16C. Burgess
5M. Ngom
20Tiago Araújo
22Leonardo Lopes
17M. Delorge-Knieper
14K. Wilson
11M. Sonko
8L. Bénes
47J. Y. Vergara Ortega
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
3H. Lee
64K. Sabbe
20H. Vanaken
8F. Potts
67M. Diakhon
10H. Vetlesen
9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Club Brugge KV · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Gent wins1 draws4 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.17
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 24 May 2026Club Brugge KV5–0Gent
- 26 Apr 2026Gent0–2Club Brugge KV
- 21 Dec 2025Club Brugge KV2–1Gent
- 31 Aug 2025Gent1–1Club Brugge KV
- 17 Dec 2023Club Brugge KV2–0Gent
- 3 Sep 2023Gent2–1Club Brugge KV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.33 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
| Gent | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 90% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 10.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 13.33 | 10.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.00 | 0.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Gent | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 6.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 11.50 | 10.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 0.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 2.10 | 2.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.92league 2.38
Red cards0.11league 0.10
Cards 5+38%league 17%
Fouls22.2league 20.7
Penalties0.31league 0.31
Home wins47%league 48%
Gent7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.1.6 · 0.9
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W9 Aug 26H · KV Mechelen2–00
- L24 May 26A · Club Brugge KV0–51
- L26 Apr 26H · Club Brugge KV0–22
- W14 Feb 26A · Charleroi3–23
- L19 Oct 25A · Zulte Waregem1–42
Club Brugge KV7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.1.1 · 3.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 May 26H · Gent5–00
- W26 Apr 26A · Gent2–00
- D8 Mar 26H · Anderlecht2–21
- L9 Nov 25A · Anderlecht0–14
- L25 Feb 24H · Anderlecht1–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent2 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Club Brugge KV3 games · scored 7 · conceded 0
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 6 · conceded 11
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 32 · conceded 4
4
1
0-15
5
16-30
5
31-45
8
1
46-60
3
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
