Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Gent. Gent had 139.8 days of rest, KV Mechelen 139.8 and had to travel 53 km.
Away travel53 kmRest days139.8 · 139.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Gent50%
Draw25%
KV Mechelen25%
Gent48%
Draw25%
KV Mechelen27%
Gent50%
Draw25%
KV Mechelen25%
Gent42%
Draw26%
KV Mechelen32%
Gent50%
Draw25%
KV Mechelen25%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 63
Team strength
Gent
KV Mechelen
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
46
AttackIn forecast
18
61
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentKV Mechelen
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
-0.76
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
40%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.90
ShotsContext
8.80
2.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
21%
On target shareContext
30%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
70%
Box shareContext
56%
4%
ConversionContext
10%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.90
Shots allowedContext
13.80
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
4.20
BlocksContext
3.88
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
80%
Save rateContext
64%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
387
PassesContext
406
314
Accurate passesContext
322
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.71
8.60
FoulsContext
8.60
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
Rest139.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KV Mechelen
Rest139.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel53 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 139.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 139.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 53 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
16C. Burgess
5M. Ngom
20Tiago Araújo
22Leonardo Lopes
27T. De Vlieger
57M. Volckaert
11M. Sonko
37A. Kadri
47J. Y. Vergara Ortega
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
23Moncef Zekri
3José Marsà
4Gora Diouf
39M. Decoene
8D. Salifou
6F. Hammar
9M. van Brederode
26D. Praet
11B. Bafdili
14B. Raman
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
No home games yet this season.
KV Mechelen · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Gent wins2 draws2 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 3 May 2026KV Mechelen1–0Gent
- 6 Apr 2026Gent1–1KV Mechelen
- 8 Mar 2026Gent3–1KV Mechelen
- 16 Aug 2025KV Mechelen1–1Gent
- 19 Jan 2024Gent1–2KV Mechelen
- 6 Aug 2023KV Mechelen0–1Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 53% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Gent | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.90 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.50 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Gent | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 8.10 | 10.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.90 | 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 2.00
Red cards0.11league 0.00
Cards 5+38%league 0%
Fouls22.2league 19.5
Penalties0.32league 0.50
Home wins46%league 25%
Gent6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 0.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L24 May 26A · Club Brugge KV0–51
- L26 Apr 26H · Club Brugge KV0–22
- W14 Feb 26A · Charleroi3–23
- L19 Oct 25A · Zulte Waregem1–42
- D10 Mar 24A · Union St. Gilloise1–11
KV Mechelen4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 May 26A · Union St. Gilloise0–31
- L18 Apr 26H · Anderlecht1–24
- D25 Jan 26H · KVC Westerlo1–12
- L28 Oct 23H · Cercle Brugge0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GentKV MechelenGent10 games · scored 4 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
6
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 9 · conceded 24
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
5
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
