Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Gent were clear favourites.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Gent. Gent had 4.3 days of rest, OH Leuven 5 and had to travel 72 km.
Away travel72 kmRest days4.3 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 1
Gent67%
Draw19%
OH Leuven14%
Gent61%
Draw22%
OH Leuven18%
Gent67%
Draw19%
OH Leuven14%
Gent60%
Draw22%
OH Leuven18%
Gent67%
Draw19%
OH Leuven14%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichiel Allaerts
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 17
Team strength
Gent
OH Leuven
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
46
AttackIn forecast
17
61
DefenceIn forecast
30
82
Form indexContext
17
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentOH Leuven
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.67
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
0.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
3.04
+0.76
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
100%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
16.33
6.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.33
53%
On target shareContext
14%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
62%
Box shareContext
63%
17%
ConversionContext
4%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
8.00
Shots allowedContext
19.00
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.33
1.67
BlocksContext
9.00
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
80%
Save rateContext
59%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
500
PassesContext
424
427
Accurate passesContext
340
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.71
9.67
FoulsContext
10.67
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
7.67
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
50%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.40
ShotsContext
12.10
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
26%
On target shareContext
26%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
65%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
1.88
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.10
Shots allowedContext
15.00
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.30
BlocksContext
4.22
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
80%
Save rateContext
65%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
433
PassesContext
381
364
Accurate passesContext
309
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.75
9.00
FoulsContext
10.70
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
7.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
WWW
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 82 · 9 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · +4.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
OH Leuven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.3Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 5Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 72 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.7 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
16C. Burgess
5M. Ngom
20Tiago Araújo
22Leonardo Lopes
17M. Delorge-Knieper
14K. Wilson
11M. Sonko
8L. Bénes
47J. Y. Vergara Ortega
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
16T. van den Heuvel(G)
28E. Pletinckx
3Noë Dussenne
5J. Lawrence
99D. Opoku
4B. Verstraete
6W. George
27Óscar Gil
24Ł. Łakomy
20S. Yamada
21W. Balikwisha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
OH Leuven · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Gent | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | W 2–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Gent wins1 draws2 OH Leuven wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 7 Feb 2026Gent1–3OH Leuven
- 2 Nov 2025OH Leuven4–0Gent
- 21 Dec 2023Gent4–0OH Leuven
- 17 Sep 2023OH Leuven1–1Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.33 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Gent | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 8.33 | |
| Match total | 6.67 | 12.33 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 2.67 | 2.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Gent | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 10.90 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 2.20 | 2.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michiel Allaerts 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.24league 2.62
Red cards0.24league 0.15
Cards 5+24%league 21%
Fouls23.1league 21.2
Penalties0.12league 0.29
Home wins35%league 47%
GentNo previous matches with this referee.
OH Leuven3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L9 Aug 26A · Charleroi1–33
- D24 Jan 26H · Union St. Gilloise0–03
- L21 Dec 25H · Cercle Brugge0–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent3 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
OH Leuven3 games · scored 2 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 10 · conceded 20
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
7
46-60
1
6
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
