Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Gent. Gent had 5.2 days of rest, Standard Liege 6.1 and had to travel 138 km.
Away travel138 kmRest days5.2 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Gent54%
Draw23%
Standard Liege22%
Gent49%
Draw25%
Standard Liege26%
Gent54%
Draw23%
Standard Liege22%
Gent47%
Draw25%
Standard Liege28%
Gent55%
Draw23%
Standard Liege22%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 52
Team strength
Gent
Standard Liege
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
46
AttackIn forecast
29
61
DefenceIn forecast
29
86
Form indexContext
58
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStandard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentStandard Liege
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
0.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.59
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.67
ShotsContext
14.00
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
37%
On target shareContext
41%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
61%
Box shareContext
74%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
2.20
OffsidesContext
3.00
9.67
Shots allowedContext
15.83
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
2.50
BlocksContext
5.60
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
83%
Save rateContext
61%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
451
PassesContext
466
378
Accurate passesContext
364
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.17
FoulsContext
9.83
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.60
ShotsContext
12.60
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
28%
On target shareContext
41%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
66%
Box shareContext
73%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.67
12.30
Shots allowedContext
16.40
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.90
BlocksContext
5.89
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
80%
Save rateContext
63%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
446
PassesContext
438
377
Accurate passesContext
345
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.40
FoulsContext
8.90
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
WWWWD
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km328 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 86 · 13 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · +5.8 vs expected
Standard Liege
DWWWL
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel138 km137 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 10 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
Standard Liege |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 138 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 328 km | 137 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22 | 22.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
16C. Burgess
5M. Ngom
20Tiago Araújo
17M. Delorge-Knieper
27T. De Vlieger
57Matties Volckaert
11M. Sonko
7M. Balikwisha
47J. Y. Vergara Ortega
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
18H. Lawrence
25I. Hautekiet
20I. Karamoko
13M. Fossey
84R. Touzghar
22A. Trouillet
94C. Nielsen
11A. Abid
10D. Eckert Ayensa
15S. Drammeh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
Standard Liege · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Gent | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| OH Leuven | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| KV Mechelen | W 2–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 12 of 12 · 3.00 per game | 8 of 12 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Gent wins0 draws1 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game3.25 – 1.25
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 23 Jan 2026Standard Liege0–4Gent
- 25 Oct 2025Gent4–0Standard Liege
- 2 Mar 2024Standard Liege4–2Gent
- 29 Oct 2023Gent3–1Standard Liege
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.67 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Gent | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 6.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 10.84 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.66 | 3.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Gent | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.12 | 10.50 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 52 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 2.98
Red cards0.25league 0.11
Cards 5+35%league 24%
Fouls24.2league 21.9
Penalties0.35league 0.26
Home wins42%league 48%
Gent6 with this referee
Record2-3-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D22 Apr 26A · Union St. Gilloise0–03
- W8 Mar 26H · KV Mechelen3–12
- W23 Jan 26A · Standard Liege4–00
- D31 Aug 25H · Club Brugge KV1–13
- L11 Feb 24H · Cercle Brugge1–21
Standard Liege5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W22 Feb 26A · Genk3–00
- L23 Jan 26H · Gent0–42
- W20 Oct 25H · Antwerp1–03
- D16 Dec 23H · Charleroi0–01
- W30 Sep 23A · OH Leuven2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent6 games · scored 11 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
Standard Liege6 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
6
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
7
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
