Getafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Getafe were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Getafe. Getafe had 7 days of rest, Celta Vigo 3.9 and had to travel 469 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel469 kmRest days7 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Getafe45%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo28%
Getafe42%
Draw26%
Celta Vigo33%
Getafe45%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo28%
Getafe38%
Draw28%
Celta Vigo34%
Getafe45%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo28%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
Heat stress
36°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 11 km/h
- Humidity 16%
Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 45
Team strength
Getafe
Celta Vigo
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
27
AttackIn forecast
36
59
DefenceIn forecast
61
41
Form indexContext
23
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GetafeCelta Vigo
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.25
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
0.50
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
-0.39
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
33%
Scored inContext
25%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.67
ShotsContext
6.50
1.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.25
14%
On target shareContext
35%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
3.25
52%
Box shareContext
46%
3%
ConversionContext
4%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.33
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
2.67
BlocksContext
3.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
69%
Save rateContext
74%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
376
PassesContext
567
296
Accurate passesContext
498
79%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.67
FoulsContext
10.75
16.67
Fouls sufferedContext
16.25
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.25
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
40%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.50
ShotsContext
7.00
2.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
21%
On target shareContext
40%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
4.60
57%
Box shareContext
58%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.88
10.30
Shots allowedContext
14.80
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.30
BlocksContext
3.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
73%
Save rateContext
75%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
307
PassesContext
503
223
Accurate passesContext
436
73%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.81
14.30
FoulsContext
11.10
15.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
LWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km658 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 3 pts vs 4.0 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
Celta Vigo
DLLD
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel469 km1,127 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 23 · 2 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -3.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Aug | 3.9La Liga 2026-2027, 3 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 469 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 658 km | 1,127 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
22J. Mojica
24Z. Romero
2D. Dakonam
8N. Gudelj
17Kiko Femenía
6Mario Martín
23O. Mangala
11Ramon Terrats
10M. Satriano
19E. Ünal
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
3Marcos Alonso
2C. Starfelt
18Yoel Lago
22Javi Galán
8Miguel Román
6I. Moriba
39Jones El-Abdellaoui
16Hugo González
11Pablo Durán
10Iago Aspas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Celta Vigo+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Celta Vigo · Away
1.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Getafe | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
4 Getafe wins3 draws3 Celta Vigo wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.10
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 30%
- 1 Feb 2026Getafe0–0Celta Vigo
- 17 Aug 2025Celta Vigo0–2Getafe
- 24 May 2025Getafe1–2Celta Vigo
- 4 Nov 2024Celta Vigo1–0Getafe
- 11 Feb 2024Getafe3–2Celta Vigo
- 8 Oct 2023Celta Vigo2–2Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 0.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 1.25 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 25% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 25% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 75% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
| Getafe | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 2.10 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 9.00 | 10.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 3.75 | 4.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Getafe | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.22 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 7.89 | 8.25 | 10.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 3.70 | 4.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.62league 4.28
Red cards0.33league 0.23
Cards 5+56%league 46%
Fouls23.5league 25.1
Penalties0.29league 0.33
Home wins42%league 51%
Getafe3 with this referee
Record0-3-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D10 May 26A · Oviedo0–02
- D21 Oct 23H · Real Betis1–15
- D13 Aug 23H · Barcelona0–08
Celta Vigo5 with this referee
Record1-3-1
Cards · opp.3.4 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D5 Oct 25H · Atletico Madrid1–11
- W5 May 24H · Villarreal3–24
- L20 Dec 23A · Villarreal2–34
- D25 Nov 23A · Valencia0–02
- D28 Sep 23H · Alaves1–16
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe3 games · scored 1 · conceded 4
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Celta Vigo4 games · scored 1 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
